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CBC: Prediction Markets Collect Bets on Ontario Municipal Races
Prediction market platforms are collecting hundreds of thousands of dollars on municipal election races in Ontario despite betting on elections not being authorized in Canada, CBC News reported.
Wagering on Ontario Municipal Races
On Polymarket, nearly $400,000 has been wagered on the identity of Toronto’s next mayor, while Kalshi has gathered approximately $43,000 in bets. Additional markets opened for cities including Oshawa, Oakville, and Mississauga, with cumulative sums ranging between $5,000 and $40,000. Platforms like Manifold also host wagers using virtual currency rather than real money.
While non-Canadian prediction markets face no prohibition against accepting wagers on Canadian elections, Ontario residents are barred from participating. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Polymarket operates without setting fixed probabilities, letting user supply and demand dictate fluctuations on the platform.
Prediction markets in Canada face regulation restricting wagers to climate forecasts, financial markets, or economic indicators through brokers authorized by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. Polymarket has been subject to a two-year ban in Ontario issued in 2025 by the Ontario Securities Commission after the agency determined the website breached provincial securities law.
Platforms Fight VPN Use to Prevent Perception Risks
Polymarket representative Connor Brandi told CBC News that the platform strictly prohibits VPN usage and conducts surveillance to detect unauthorized access.
Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever reported that the platform detected no evidence of VPN usage for Ontario election markets. Lever noted that the platform restricts electoral markets in Canada and verifies each user’s identity and residence upon registration, preventing VPN workarounds.
Ford identified the primary risk as the potential to distort public perception regarding a candidate’s viability and influence voting behavior.
Candidate Brad Bradford urged citizens to vote rather than bet, describing voting as the sole path to political change. Bradford stated he does not engage with these prediction platforms. Fellow candidate Olivia Chow reported she had not checked the platforms, suggesting other levels of government should refine regulations regarding the substantial sums involved.
Regulators Warn VPN Users Forfeit Investment Protections
The Ontario Securities Commission stated it expects parties to comply with its settlement agreements and orders, while noting that prediction market regulation falls under the Canadian Securities Administrators and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization.
Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization spokesperson Ariel Visconti reiterated rules regarding authorized subjects and investment dealers, declining to propose additional enforcement measures. Visconti noted that investors using VPNs to bypass geographic restrictions forfeit regulatory protections available through authorized investment dealers.
Disclaimer: The insights provided in this article are for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute medical advice or sports betting recommendations.