Global Temperatures Set to Rise 2.6°C Despite Emissions Slowdown, New Report Warns
DUBAI, UAE - The world remains on track for a catastrophic 2.6°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels despite a recent slowdown in the rate of emissions growth, according to a new report released today at the COP28 climate summit. The annual Global Carbon Project (GCP) report, compiled by 130 scientists, reveals that global CO₂ emissions are projected to reach 36.8 billion tonnes in 2023, a 1.1% increase over 2022.
While the increase is smaller than last year’s 2.4% jump, driven largely by the expansion of renewable energy sources, it is not nearly enough to limit warming to the Paris Agreement’s target of 1.5°C. The report highlights that emissions continue to rise, and crucial carbon sinks – forests, soils, and oceans that absorb CO₂ – are becoming less effective, exacerbating the problem. Several countries, including the UK, have not signed up to commitments needed to address the crisis.
“we’re not yet in a situation where emissions are going down as rapidly as they need to to tackle climate change, but simultaneously occurring emissions are growing much less rapidly than before as of the unusual growth in renewable energy,” explained Prof. Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia, a lead author of the report. She noted that 35 countries, representing a quarter of the global GDP, are now experiencing economic growth alongside falling emissions, including europe, the US, Australia, Jordan, and South Korea.
The GCP projects atmospheric CO₂ levels will reach 425 parts per million (ppm) in 2025, a meaningful increase from the pre-industrial level of 280ppm. This figure would be 8ppm lower if carbon sinks hadn’t weakened.
Former US Vice President Al Gore, speaking at COP28, sharply criticized the continued inaction, stating, “It is indeed literally insane that we are allowing [global heating] to continue.” He questioned, “How long are we going to stand by and keep turning the thermostat up so that these sort of events get even worse?” gore warned that continued reliance on the atmosphere as “an open sewer” will make adaptation increasingly challenging.
Romain Ioualalen, of Oil Change International, urged nations meeting at COP30 to “double down on renewable energy and start planning for an accelerated phaseout of fossil fuel production and use.” The GCP’s projections are based on data through September and have accurately predicted annual emissions for the past 19 years.
