Brazilian Antitrust Authority Cade May Favor Maersk and MSC Participation

The TCU Advisory Vote and the Antaq Bidding Structure

The plenary of the Federal Court of Accounts recommended by a vote of 6 to 3 that the auction of Tecon 10 should follow a model proposed by the National Agency for Waterway Transportation, or Antaq. According to reporting from NeoFeed, the agency’s proposed rule structures the bidding process into two distinct phases. The initial phase restricts participation entirely to companies that do not currently operate container terminals at the Port of Santos. This restriction aims to safeguard market competition.

Under the proposed structure, if no outside parties bid—a scenario market participants consider highly unlikely given interest from approximately 10 major global logistics firms—the process opens to established operators in Santos. These established groups include MSC and Maersk, which are associated with BPT, alongside CMA CGM and DP World. Any shipping company that successfully wins the bid under this secondary phase would be legally obligated to divest its existing assets within the port.

The TCU’s decision carries an advisory rather than a binding legal nature, meaning Antaq holds the final administrative authority on whether to adopt the recommendation wholesale. Regulatory authorities plan to set a definitive auction date, which market observers anticipate will fall within the first quarter of 2026. The high financial stakes involved have turned the administrative proceeding into a contentious national debate over infrastructure access.

Economic Scale and Legal Challenges Facing the Port of Santos

Tecon 10 represents a massive expansion for the Port of Santos, which serves as the largest maritime hub in Latin America. The new terminal will span 622,000 square meters and increase the port’s overall cargo capacity by 50 percent. Financial projections indicate the auction will generate R$ 6.5 billion in direct concession fees, backed by an estimated R$ 40 billion in capital investments distributed over a 25-year concession period. Upon full build-out, the project anticipates handling up to 3.5 million TEUs annually across four new berthing berths and an integrated passenger terminal.

Industry stakeholders and legal experts warn that the regulatory precedent established by the TCU will likely trigger extensive courtroom battles. Daniela Vlavianos, an attorney with the law firm Arman Advocacia who specializes in logistics sector bidding processes, notes that litigation is not merely possible but probable given the project’s massive economic footprint. Companies currently operating within the port are widely expected to file federal lawsuits challenging the restrictive framework proposed by Antaq.

Market concentration remains the central justification behind the strict auction guidelines. Current data shows that two-thirds of the cargo moving through the Port of Santos is already controlled by established operators. Without structural safeguards, the 50 percent capacity expansion provided by Tecon 10 could drive that market control as high as 85 percent. Introducing an independent operator with no prior terminal holdings inside the port mitigates the risk of vertical integration and prevents dominant firms from systematically prioritizing their own proprietary cargo.

Shifting Dynamics Among Global Shipping Competitors

With major incumbent shipowners potentially barred from the initial bidding phase, attention within the international shipping community has pivoted toward alternative global conglomerates. At least ten domestic and international firms have expressed preliminary interest in the Tecon 10 project.

The outcome of the upcoming auction will permanently alter maritime logistics across South America, dictating whether open-market competition or consolidated carrier control defines the future of Brazilian trade infrastructure. As Antaq finalizes the auction timeline, stakeholders across the supply chain continue to monitor the federal tribunals for incoming injunctions that could delay the bidding process further.