Brazil election winner could reshape institutions as vacancies mount
Brazil’s next president will inherit an unusually large number of vacant appointments across the country’s most powerful institutions, including the Supreme Court, the central bank, and key economic regulators, Reuters reported on October 2. This growing backlog means the winner of the presidential race between incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro could secure expanded influence over monetary policy, financial market oversight, and constitutional interpretation.
Backlogs at the Central Bank and Supreme Court
The upcoming transfer of executive power arrives as several critical state posts sit empty for record durations. At the central bank, two board seats have remained vacant since January, representing the longest period those positions have stayed open. The empty slots include the vital economic policy post that oversees forecasts ahead of interest rate decisions. Lula has not yet submitted nominees for those board vacancies, according to reporting by Reuters.
A similar gridlock affects the nation’s highest court. In April, senators rejected Lula’s Supreme Court nominee, Solicitor General Jorge Messias, marking a historic legislative setback. That defeat extended a court vacancy that is now approaching one year in length—the longest such judicial gap since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s. Further down the regulatory framework, the securities regulator CVM has carried board vacancies since late 2024. Meanwhile, antitrust watchdog Cade operates near its minimum quorum due to a missing president and two board members, which has consequently delayed ongoing merger reviews.
Congress Uses Nomination Process for Political Leverage
The accumulation of unfilled posts highlights a fundamental shift in Brazilian governance, where a predominantly right-wing Congress uses the nomination confirmation process as a primary instrument for political leverage. While nomination approvals once moved promptly through Senate committees, processes stalled during the pandemic and remained dependent on the approval of Senate President Davi Alcolumbre. According to a person familiar with the legislative process who requested anonymity, Alcolumbre has maintained that centralized practice, transforming a routine administrative step into a political decision. Neither the presidential palace nor Alcolumbre’s office responded to requests for comment.
This dynamic leaves the executive branch hesitant to put forward candidates without prior backing. Rubens Beçak, a law professor at the University of São Paulo, noted that because presidential appointments are used as political bargaining chips, the executive is reluctant to submit nominees without first gauging their Senate prospects. Political scientist Claudio Couto of the Fundação Getúlio Vargas called the backlog deeply problematic, warning that it risks concentrating appointments within a single administration and politicizing bodies designed to remain nonpartisan.
Shifting Power From the Executive to Congress
Bargaining power between the branches of government has shifted. Neuriberg Dias, head of the legislative watchdog DIAP, stated that nominations and bills now largely hinge on direct deals among congressional leaders rather than traditional negotiations between the president and coalition parties. This shift is mirrored by Congress taking greater control over federal spending. Planning Ministry data provided to Reuters shows that congressional earmarks directing funds to local or pet projects grew from 7.5 percent of effective federal discretionary spending in 2018 to 21 percent in 2025.
Legislative productivity has adjusted in tandem with these fiscal shifts. Last year, Congress approved 178 bills introduced by its own members while passing only 50 originating from the executive branch. That ratio represents a reversal from 2007 during Lula’s second term, when the executive branch saw 142 of its bills approved compared to just 52 from Congress, based on DIAP records.
Upcoming Elections Slow Nomination Procedures
The ongoing 2026 political campaign has slowed nomination procedures even further as lawmakers delay decisions to see whether Lula secures another term or if Senator Flávio Bolsonaro wins the presidency. The first round of the electoral contest is scheduled for Sunday, with a runoff later in the month widely forecast as the most probable outcome. Concurrently, voters will cast ballots to elect all 513 members of the Lower House and two-thirds of the Senate, determining the legislative balance of power that will dictate how quickly these institutional vacancies are finally filled.