Bengals favored over Jaguars for NFL Week 4 matchup at Paycor Stadium
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals meet at Paycor Stadium on Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, for an NFL Week 4 showdown airing on CBS at 10 a.m. MST. Sportsbooks list the Bengals as 2.5-point favorites with an over/under set at 51 points, setting the stage for a high-scoring battle between two 2-1 AFC contenders.
Betting Odds and Market Projections for Week 4
BetMGM Sportsbook has installed the Cincinnati Bengals as 2.5-point home favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Cincinnati carries a -135 moneyline, while Jacksonville sits at +115. Prediction markets and modeling data point toward a tightly contested game. Tom Oldfield of Covers notes that early action favors the Bengals at -2.5, pointing to Joe Burrow’s 24-17 straight-up career record at Paycor Stadium. Meanwhile, forecasting models from sites like Dimers give the Bengals a 59.7% win probability compared to 40.3% for the Jaguars, while ESPN analytics project a 55% chance for a Jacksonville victory.
Offensive Firepower and Defensive Questions
Both teams enter Week 4 coming off contrasting performances that have sharpened analytical focus on their respective units. Bill Speros of Bookies.com highlights that the Jacksonville Jaguars demolished the New England Patriots 35-6 behind a dominant performance from quarterback Trevor Lawrence. On the other side, the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense cracked against the Pittsburgh Steelers, though Joe Burrow continues to post strong numbers with six touchdowns and just one interception across three games despite a costly strip-sack fumble last week.
The matchup features two high-scoring offenses averaging over 27 points per game. Analysts from both Bookies.com and Covers point to the over/under line of 51 points as a prime target for bettors, noting that neither secondary has shown the capacity to consistently shut down elite passing attacks.
Historical Matchup Trends in the AFC
Recent history heavily favors the home side in this series. The Cincinnati Bengals have covered the spread in their past four matchups against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Historical data reveals that the Over has hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these franchises. As both rosters vie for early-season positioning in a wide-open AFC North, execution in the red zone and pass protection will likely dictate which squad maintains its upward trajectory.