Atlanta Fed Index Tracks Maritime Chokepoint Impacts on US Imports
Nearly half of all imported goods arriving in the United States travel by sea, yet maritime supply chains remain vulnerable to disruptions at key global chokepoints, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta analysis.
Tracking Maritime Pressure Points
Economists Simon Fuchs and Fernando Leibovici developed a monthly index designed to measure the impact of international shipping disruptions on American imports. Instead of simply noting whether a maritime route is blocked, the tool combines public trade data with vessel traffic records, weighting each disruption by the financial value of the goods that typically transit through the corridor. The index tracks eight specific chokepoints: Bab el-Mandeb, Gibilterra, Dover, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Taiwan Strait.
By comparing active traffic against a three-year seasonal baseline, the system avoids double-counting overlapping crises while updating its baseline weights annually to reflect shifting U.S. import sources.
The Impact of Panama and Red Sea Disruptions
Three successive crises have tested these maritime corridors since 2023. Drought conditions first restricted transits through the Panama Canal. Late in that same year, vessel attacks in the Red Sea forced carriers to bypass the region entirely, opting instead for longer voyages around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope that increased shipping costs and transit times.
The convergence of these events drove the Federal Reserve’s index to a peak of 38.9 points in January 2024, roughly five times the 2022–2023 average. This high-pressure environment persisted through the end of 2025, exerting the heaviest toll on non-energy imports. Apparel and footwear disproportionately influenced the index during this period, outpacing machinery and electronics despite lower overall trade volumes.
East Coast ports—specifically New York and New Jersey, Savannah, and the Port of Virginia—absorbed the brunt of these supply chain bottlenecks. Conversely, Los Angeles and Long Beach, despite ranking as the nation’s top maritime import gateway by value, remained largely insulated because their Pacific trade routes bypassed the affected regions.
Energy Shocks in the Strait of Hormuz
Operations changed in late February 2026, when war involving Iran severely restricted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike the broad consumer goods impact seen in 2024, the Hormuz disruption concentrated heavily on energy imports and refining centers situated along the Gulf and West Coast.
By March 2026, energy shipments accounted for over a third of the national index value, even though they represented less than ten percent of the total maritime import basket. Nonetheless, the overall national index stayed well below its 2024 peak because baseline commercial traffic through Hormuz destined directly for the United States remains comparatively low.
Public Data Helps Managers Anticipate Localized Supply Shocks
Federal policymakers and commercial enterprises now rely on this public-data framework to act as an early warning system. By identifying vulnerable merchandise and targeted port destinations before cargo physically arrives, logistics managers can better prepare for regional supply constraints.
Because maritime disruptions do not affect all sectors uniformly—some events inflate general consumer prices while others squeeze strategic energy inputs—disaggregated monitoring helps businesses and trade economists anticipate localized shocks. As global shipping routes remain susceptible to geopolitical friction and extreme weather, timely analytics offer a clearer view of vulnerabilities within the real economy.