A Public Electric Vehicle Charging Station (SPKLU) in Medan, North Sumatra, Indonesia. (Sutanta Aditya/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Southeast Asian nations are proceeding with modest emissions reduction targets despite a global shift towards renewable energy, a situation attributed to both limited investment resources and a perceived lack of urgency. While most members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have established economy-wide targets and prioritized energy within their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement – Myanmar and Timor-Leste being the exceptions – the ambition of these goals remains comparatively low.
The NDCs of Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam outline “unconditional” mitigation targets alongside more ambitious “conditional” targets, contingent upon receiving adequate financial and technological support. Thailand’s NDC, for example, estimates a require for US$6.11 billion by 2035 to facilitate a transition encompassing green energy, transportation, and industries. This reliance on external support highlights a common challenge across the region.
Timor-Leste’s NDC underscores its vulnerability as a Least Developed Country and Small Island Developing State, citing deficiencies in human capacity, financial resources, and technology as obstacles to implementing effective mitigation and adaptation measures. This acknowledgement contrasts with the country’s significant investment – amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars – in infrastructure intended to support a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant that remains unrealized.
Despite commitments to decarbonization, fossil fuels continue to play a central role in the region’s energy future. However, positive developments are emerging, including the expansion of solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in Vietnam during the early 2020s and the participation of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand in the world’s fastest-growing electric vehicle (EV) markets.
Australia is being urged to increase its support for emissions reduction efforts in Southeast Asia, with a particular focus on the development of an integrated ASEAN electricity grid. While sub-regional connections exist within the Mekong region, broader progress has been hampered by slow implementation. Singapore has been a key proponent, facilitating the import of hydropower from Laos, wind energy from Vietnam, and solar PV from Indonesia.
A formalized ASEAN grid, coupled with associated electricity markets, could incentivize investment in renewable energy generation by expanding the potential customer base and reducing reliance on existing thermal power sources. This represents particularly relevant given China’s interest in advancing a Mekong sub-region power grid with a control center in Kunming, a prospect viewed with caution by regional capitals wary of undue influence.
Australia’s experience in testing technologies such as huge batteries, virtual power plants, and vehicle-to-grid systems could enhance the resilience of regional electricity grids. The growth of Vietnam’s EV manufacturing sector, exemplified by Vinfast’s targeting of fleet markets in the Philippines, aligns with the Philippines’ plans to expand its offshore wind industry. Similarly, Thailand is witnessing a decline in fossil fuel vehicle production alongside increasing manufacturing of battery electric vehicles by companies like BYD Auto, SAIC (MG), and Great Wall Motor.
Australia’s expertise in managing a grid with a high proportion of renewable energy, alongside its ongoing technology testing, could prove valuable to the region. Potential avenues for Australian support include utilizing Export Finance Australia to foster regional partnerships, providing technical assistance through organizations like the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), and promoting regulatory harmonization. These initiatives could be advanced through forums such as the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference, bilateral engagements, and industry-led dialogues.
Given that Southeast Asia includes three of the ten countries most vulnerable to climate-related extreme weather events, the need for concerted action is pressing.
