China Shifts Soybean Purchases to Argentina,Leaving U.S. Harvest Unsold
BEIJING – As the U.S. soybean harvest begins, China continues to bypass American suppliers, instead turning to Argentina for its soybean needs, a trend that threatens to exacerbate financial pressures on U.S. crop farms. Despite a significant 4.3 billion bushel U.S. soybean crop estimated by the USDA, there are currently no indications of resumed orders from China, the world’s largest soybean importer.
This shift comes as meaningful portions of the 2024/25 U.S. grains harvests – worth over $8 billion – remain unsold, according to analyst Lorena D’Angelo. The situation is compounded by a 34% overall duty rate on U.S. soybeans in China, resulting from a combination of retaliatory tariffs, Value-Added Tax (VAT), and Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) duties. While this rate is 5% lower than during the 2018 trade war, the American Soybean Association warned in an August letter to the White House that it will likely keep U.S. soybean prices higher than South American supplies.
Historically, China has been a crucial market for U.S. soybeans. In 2024, the U.S.shipped nearly 985 million bushels to China, representing 51% of the nation’s total soybean exports. However, exports to China from January through August 2025 totaled only 218 million bushels – a mere 29% of total exports for the period, with shipments effectively halting in June, July, and august.
The lack of Chinese demand is occurring as U.S. farmers face economic headwinds, including a recently enacted tax break offering relief on grain storage, with rates of 24.5% on soybean oil and meal and 9.5% on corn. Analysts suggest this tax break could trigger a sell-off as farmers seek capital for next season’s planting. If a trade agreement isn’t reached this fall, producers reliant on Chinese buyers could face substantial losses, further straining the financial health of U.S. crop farms.
