Apophis Asteroid 2029: Earth’s Defense and Space Missions

On Friday, April 13, 2029, the asteroid 99942 Apophis will pass within 32,000 kilometers of Earth’s surface.

The flyby will bring the space rock closer to the planet than its geostationary satellites, which orbit at an altitude of 36,000 kilometers. For comparison, GPS satellites operate at 20,000 kilometers; Apophis will pass between those satellites and the Earth. The asteroid will be ten times closer to the planet than the Moon.

European Observation Mission

Europe is deploying the Ramses probe to accompany the asteroid and provide real-time observations of the event. This mission aims to study the asteroid as it is subjected to Earth’s gravitational forces, which are expected to twist and deform the object during its passage.

The asteroid, which measures between 340 and 375 meters in diameter, will be visible to the naked eye over Africa and Europe.

Collision Risks and Discovery

The asteroid was first identified in 2004 by researchers at the University of Hawaii. Initial calculations indicated a 2.7 percent, or 1 in 37, chance of a collision with Earth in 2029, which was the highest impact probability ever estimated for an asteroid. This risk led to its name, Apophis, after the Egyptian god of chaos and destruction.

Radar observations conducted in March 2021 later confirmed that the asteroid poses no threat of impacting Earth for the next 100 years.

Astronomers note that a flyby of an asteroid of this size at such a close distance occurs on average once every 800 years, with a similar event not expected to recur for another 7,000 years.

The Ramses probe remains the primary institutional effort to observe the asteroid’s physical transformation during the 2029 encounter.