Breast Cancer Cases to Surge Globally: New Study Reveals Stark Disparities

Global breast cancer cases are projected to rise by approximately 30% to 3.5 million annually by 2050, with deaths nearly doubling to 1.4 million, according to research published in The Lancet Oncology. While incidence rates are expected to remain stable in high-income countries, with mortality continuing to decline due to advancements in screening, diagnosis, and treatment, both incidence and mortality are forecast to increase in lower-income nations.

The study, conducted by the Global Burden of Disease Study Breast Cancer consortium, estimates that in 2023, there were 2.3 million new cases of breast cancer diagnosed worldwide. It also estimates approximately 24 million years of healthy life were lost due to the disease and premature mortality. Researchers utilized data from population-based cancer registries, registration systems, and interviews with family members or caregivers of women who died from breast cancer to provide an updated global, regional, and national overview of the breast cancer burden and risk factors from 1990 to 2023, with projections through 2050.

In 2024, Italy saw 53,686 new diagnoses of breast cancer, representing 30.3% of all cancers diagnosed in women in the country, according to data from the Italian Association for Cancer Research (AIRC). Approximately 925,000 women in Italy are currently living with a breast cancer diagnosis.

The research highlights a significant disparity in outcomes between high-income and low-income countries. While new cases have remained relatively stable in wealthier nations, incidence has more than doubled in lower-income countries. Correspondingly, mortality rates have decreased by nearly 40% in high-income countries but have doubled in poorer nations. This divergence is expected to drive the overall increase in global breast cancer cases and deaths.

The study identified six modifiable risk factors associated with breast cancer: high red meat consumption, tobacco use, high blood sugar levels, a high body mass index (BMI), and insufficient physical activity. The researchers suggest that adopting a healthy lifestyle – including not smoking, engaging in regular physical activity, reducing red meat intake, and maintaining a healthy weight – could prevent over a quarter of years of healthy life lost.

In 2023, high red meat consumption was linked to nearly 11% of all healthy years lost due to breast cancer, followed by tobacco use (including secondhand smoke) at 8%, high blood glucose at 6%, and high BMI at 4%. Elevated alcohol consumption and low physical activity each contributed to 2% of healthy years lost. Between 1990 and 2023, progress has been made in reducing the incidence of breast cancer related to high alcohol and tobacco consumption, decreasing by 47% and 28% respectively. However, the incidence of breast cancer linked to other risk factors has not shown similar improvements.

According to the Italian National Institute of Health, the most common type of breast cancer is a neoplasm originating from the uncontrolled growth of cells within the mammary gland. The disease can be categorized into stages, ranging from confined to the ducts or lobules (Stage 0) to localized tumors less than 2 cm without lymph node involvement (Stage 1), larger tumors with or without lymph node involvement (Stage 2), and spread to nearby tissues with significant lymph node involvement (Stage 3). The most advanced stage (Stage 4) involves metastasis to other organs like bones, liver, and lungs.

Kayleigh Bhangdia, the lead author of the study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, stated that while high-income countries generally benefit from screening, early diagnosis, and comprehensive treatment strategies, the increasing burden is shifting towards low- and middle-income countries. Women in these regions often face late diagnoses, limited access to quality care, and higher mortality rates.