Gulf states are nearing a decision to end their neutrality in the escalating conflict between Iran and the United States, responding to a series of attacks on their territory and infrastructure. The potential shift, led by the United Arab Emirates within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), would represent a significant escalation and a de facto alignment with Israel, fundamentally reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
A Sunday meeting of GCC foreign ministers, whereas not explicitly announcing a plan for collective action, affirmed that the “option to respond to Iranian attacks” to safeguard regional security and stability remained open. This statement follows a sustained diplomatic effort by Iran over the past two years to persuade Gulf states that Israel, rather than Iran, is the primary source of regional instability – a strategy that appears to be unraveling rapidly.
Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has attempted to justify recent attacks as targeting U.S. Forces stationed in Gulf states. “We do not intend to attack you. But when the bases of your country are used against us and the United States operates in the region with its own forces, we target them,” he stated. However, this justification has failed to gain traction as attacks have expanded to include civilian infrastructure.
Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Majed al-Ansari, acknowledged the gravity of the situation, stating, “This cannot travel unanswered. a price has to be paid for this attack on our people,” following drone strikes on energy facilities in Ras Laffan that prompted Doha to halt liquified natural gas production. Former Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber al-Thani warned that Iran had “lost through this action the Gulf sympathy that was pushing with every possible effort towards de-escalation” and “sowed doubts that will be hard to erase” in its future relations with GCC states.
The shift in sentiment within the GCC is attributed to the scale and scope of recent Iranian attacks. The UAE has reported detecting 174 ballistic missiles, intercepting 161, with 13 landing within its territory, alongside 689 drones, of which 645 were intercepted and 44 impacted the country. Eight cruise missiles were also detected and destroyed, resulting in three fatalities and 68 injuries. Financial analysts, including Kelly Grieco at the Stimson Center, estimate the cost to the UAE from intercepting drones alone has reached nearly $2 billion since the start of the conflict.
A joint statement released Monday by Bahrain, Iraq (including the Kurdistan region), Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates condemned the targeting of civilians and countries not directly involved in hostilities as “reckless and destabilising.”
The crisis appears to have prompted a thaw in relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which had been strained by competing interests in conflicts in Sudan and Yemen. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed reportedly held their first conversation in months, signaling a potential rapprochement.
Saudi authorities have denied a Washington Post report alleging covert encouragement of U.S. And Israeli attacks on Iran, a claim that would be politically damaging given Saudi Arabia’s public condemnation of Israeli actions in Gaza. Gulf states had previously urged the U.S. To exercise restraint and pursue a diplomatic resolution to the Iranian nuclear program.
During ongoing negotiations, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly came close to apologizing for an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps attack on a U.S. Facility in Oman, the country mediating the nuclear talks. Araghchi also claimed Iran had offered unprecedented concessions, including a commitment to zero stockpiling of highly enriched uranium. He further stated that command of Iran’s military had been decentralized to ensure continuity in the event of a headquarters strike.
Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in defence studies at King’s College London, suggested Iran is deliberately targeting Gulf states because they are perceived as “softer targets” than Israel, and have a lower appetite for direct military confrontation.
