Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the betting favorite to win the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award, but his status is increasingly tied to his health and the remaining schedule, particularly three upcoming matchups against the Denver Nuggets and their star, Nikola Jokić. As of Wednesday, February 26, 2026, Gilgeous-Alexander is listed at -125 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Jokić is at +310, according to ESPN.com.
The MVP race has tightened as a new NBA rule stipulates that players must participate in at least 65 regular-season games to be eligible for postseason awards. Gilgeous-Alexander has already missed 11 games, including Wednesday’s game against the Detroit Pistons, due to an abdominal strain, and must appear in at least 16 of the Thunder’s remaining 22 contests to qualify. Jokić has missed 16 games and can afford no more than two further absences.
The Thunder and Nuggets are scheduled to play three times before the finish of the regular season, beginning Friday night (9:30 ET, ESPN). These games could prove pivotal, particularly if the race remains close. Analysts suggest that a dominant performance by either player against the other’s team could sway voters.
Jokić faces a challenging task in the matchups against Oklahoma City, contending with the defensive presence of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. While Jokić is statistically superior to both players combined, the physical demands of guarding both considerable men could be a factor. Gilgeous-Alexander, conversely, will face a Nuggets team currently without elite perimeter defenders Peyton Watson and Aaron Gordon, both sidelined with hamstring injuries, and with Christian Braun struggling since his return from injury.
The potential for Gilgeous-Alexander to miss additional games due to his abdominal strain could benefit Jokić. Gilgeous-Alexander previously overtook Jokić in the MVP race last month when Jokić was sidelined with a hyperextended knee. The Nuggets’ star will need to lead his team closer to the top of the Western Conference – currently 7.5 games behind Oklahoma City – to bolster his chances.
The MVP race is entering a critical phase as the season progresses into March. Both Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić are facing increased pressure to remain healthy and perform at a high level. A final regular season matchup between the two teams is scheduled for April 10, potentially serving as a decisive contest.
Elsewhere in the MVP conversation, Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham is gaining traction, fueled by recent strong performances, including a 29-point, 13-assist outing against the Thunder (without Gilgeous-Alexander) and a 42-point performance against the New York Knicks. His odds have improved from 14-1 to 9-2 at DraftKings Sportsbook over the past week. San Antonio Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama has also been playing well, leading the Spurs on an 11-game winning streak and establishing himself as a strong contender for Defensive Player of the Year. Luka Dončić of the Los Angeles Lakers remains a strong contender, leading the league in scoring.
The Kia MVP Ladder, as of February 27, 2026, currently ranks the top five players as follows:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (31.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.4 assists)
- Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (28.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 10.4 assists)
- Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (25.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 9.8 assists)
- Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (23.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.9 blocks)
- Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers (32.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 8.6 assists)
