Ukrainian counterattacks are disrupting Russian plans as Moscow’s invasion enters its fifth year, according to a recent assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The February 24 report, marking four years since the full-scale invasion began, details how recent Ukrainian successes challenge Russian narratives of inevitable victory.
The ISW assessment directly refutes claims made by the Kremlin that Ukraine’s position will deteriorate the longer it delays surrendering to Russian demands. Events on the battlefield, the report states, disprove these assertions and demonstrate that a Russian battlefield victory is not inevitable.
The assessment comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion enters its fifth year, a period marked by the failure to achieve any of the Kremlin’s original war aims and increasing casualties. Russia’s challenges, both on and off the battlefield, are forcing Kremlin leadership to make demanding decisions to sustain the war effort, a situation ISW has long predicted.
According to the ISW, the Kremlin is attempting to divert attention from the military’s inability to meet Putin’s objectives on the anniversary of the invasion. This includes the use of claims made by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) to re-litigate justifications for the war, which has now surpassed the Soviet Union’s involvement in World War II in duration without achieving its stated goals.
The SVR’s claims are too being leveraged, the ISW notes, as a pretext to threaten the United Kingdom and France with potential nuclear strikes. This is likely intended to disrupt ongoing discussions regarding Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
The ISW provides daily updated interactive maps of the conflict, complementing static control-of-terrain maps with high-fidelity assessments, including street-level details where available. These maps document the ongoing shifts in control throughout Ukraine.
The Kyiv Post reported on February 25, 2026, that Putin’s invasion has resulted in setbacks for Russia despite initial expectations. The ISW assessment highlights that the fifth year of the conflict is not beginning favorably for Moscow.
