Chikungunya virus, a debilitating tropical disease, is now transmissible by mosquitoes across much of Europe, according to a new scientific analysis published Wednesday. The findings indicate a significant expansion in the potential geographic range of the virus, driven by rising temperatures linked to climate change.
The study, which assessed the effect of temperature on the incubation time of the virus within the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), revealed that transmission can occur at temperatures as low as 13-14°C (55-57°F) – approximately 2.5°C lower than previously estimated. This “quite shocking” difference, researchers say, dramatically increases the number of regions and months where the virus can spread.
In southern European countries like Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece, conditions now allow for chikungunya infections for more than six months each year. Even parts of northern Europe, including southeastern England, could experience seasonal outbreaks lasting up to two months annually. Scientists caution that continued global warming will likely push the virus further north.
Hundreds of cases were reported in France and Italy in 2025, signaling the virus’s growing foothold in Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito, an invasive species that has established itself across the continent, is the primary vector for the disease. It is active during daylight hours, increasing the risk of transmission.
Chikungunya virus was first detected in 1952 in Tanzania and historically remained confined to tropical regions, where millions of infections occur annually. The disease causes severe and prolonged joint pain, which can be extremely debilitating and, in some cases, fatal for young children and older adults. While Europe has seen sporadic cases in the past, the recent outbreaks and expanded transmission potential raise significant public health concerns.
Currently, vaccines are available in the United States, but in many European countries, including Cyprus, treatment focuses on managing symptoms in consultation with healthcare providers. The study highlights the urgent need for increased surveillance and preparedness measures across Europe to mitigate the impact of this emerging threat.
Researchers at the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) in the United Kingdom contributed to the analysis, emphasizing the importance of understanding the relationship between temperature and viral incubation. The findings underscore the growing impact of climate change on the spread of infectious diseases globally.
