The Italian mortgage market appears to be stabilizing at the start of 2026, mirroring the trends observed at the close of 2025. Data from the MutuiOnline.it Observatory indicates a slight increase in the average TAN (Nominal Annual Rate) for fixed-rate mortgages, reaching 3.43% in January for both standard and green offerings. Variable-rate mortgages, however, have remained steady at 2.65%, solidifying their position as the more advantageous option for borrowers.
The gap between fixed and variable rates has widened to 78 basis points. This translates to a potential savings of €55 per month – €752 versus €807 – on a €140,000, 20-year mortgage when opting for a variable rate, totaling over €13,100 in savings over the loan’s lifetime.
Even as the Euribor, the benchmark for variable-rate mortgages, has remained stable around 2% following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) pause in rate cuts, the IRS (Interest Rate Swap) indices, which underpin fixed-rate calculations, have seen upward pressure. These indices, linked to 30-year German Bunds, reflect global geopolitical uncertainties and have risen slightly since March of last year. Both 20- and 30-year IRS rates now exceed 3%, reaching approximately 3.16%, nearly a full percentage point higher than in January 2025. The average TAN for fixed-rate mortgages is 60 basis points higher than it was a year ago, increasing the monthly payment on the aforementioned €140,000 mortgage by €42 (from €765 to €807), adding over €10,000 to the total cost over 20 years.
Matteo Favaro, COO & Managing Director Financial Products at MutuiOnline.it, commented, “Despite the increase in fixed rates, which remain historically favorable, the market today offers a wide range of solutions. The variable rate – for those more comfortable with risk and a clear understanding of market evolution – represents an interesting option for immediate savings. Alongside the rate type, the energy efficiency class of the property is a key consideration, as green mortgages offer lower rates, up to 30-40 basis points lower than the average.” He added that borrowers can always utilize the option of *surroga*, or mortgage transfer, to move their loan to a different bank and benefit from more favorable conditions should rates decline in the future.
In the Emilia-Romagna region, the average mortgage requested in January was €149,700, slightly below the national average of €151,400. According to MutuiOnline.it Observatory data for the region, the average mortgage duration reached 25 years and 4 months, exceeding the national average of 24 years and 10 months. Property values in Emilia-Romagna also averaged lower, at €221,200 compared to the national average of €234,200. Borrowers in the region are also younger, with an average age of 38 years and 4 months, compared to the national average of 39 years and 3 months. Fixed rates accounted for 92.4% of requests in Emilia-Romagna, with variable rates comprising just 5.0%.
Provincial analysis within Emilia-Romagna reveals that Piacenza has the youngest mortgage applicants (average age 36 years and 7 months), while Parma has the oldest (39 years and 6 months). Forlì-Cesena boasts the longest mortgage durations (26 years and 10 months), while Modena has the shortest (24 years and 11 months). Rimini recorded the highest average mortgage amount (€166,933), while Ferrara had the lowest (€125,264). Bologna leads in average property value (€251,120), while Ferrara again has the lowest (€186,717).
