Mortgage Rates 2026: Variable vs Fixed & Regional Trends in Italy
The Italian mortgage market appears to be stabilizing at the start of 2026, mirroring the trends observed at the close of 2025. Data from the MutuiOnline.it Observatory indicates a slight increase in the average TAN (Nominal Annual Rate) for fixed-rate mortgages, reaching 3.43% in January for both standard and green offerings. Variable-rate mortgages, however, have remained steady at 2.65%, solidifying their position as the more advantageous option for borrowers.
The gap between fixed and variable rates has widened to 78 basis points. This translates to a potential savings of €55 per month – €752 versus €807 – on a €140,000, 20-year mortgage when opting for a variable rate, totaling over €13,100 in savings over the loan’s lifetime.
Even as the Euribor, the benchmark for variable-rate mortgages, has remained stable around 2% following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) pause in rate cuts, the IRS (Interest Rate Swap) indices, which underpin fixed-rate calculations, have seen upward pressure. These indices, linked to 30-year German Bunds, reflect global geopolitical uncertainties and have risen slightly since March of last year. Both 20- and 30-year IRS rates now exceed 3%, reaching approximately 3.16%, nearly a full percentage point higher than in January 2025. The average TAN for fixed-rate mortgages is 60 basis points higher than it was a year ago, increasing the monthly payment on the aforementioned €140,000 mortgage by €42 (from €765 to €807), adding over €10,000 to the total cost over 20 years.
Matteo Favaro, COO & Managing Director Financial Products at MutuiOnline.it, commented, “Despite the increase in fixed rates, which remain historically favorable, the market today offers a wide range of solutions. The variable rate – for those more comfortable with risk and a clear understanding of market evolution – represents an interesting option for immediate savings. Alongside the rate type, the energy efficiency class of the property is a key consideration, as green mortgages offer lower rates, up to 30-40 basis points lower than the average.” He added that borrowers can always utilize the option of *surroga*, or mortgage transfer, to move their loan to a different bank and benefit from more favorable conditions should rates decline in the future.
In the Emilia-Romagna region, the average mortgage requested in January was €149,700, slightly below the national average of €151,400. According to MutuiOnline.it Observatory data for the region, the average mortgage duration reached 25 years and 4 months, exceeding the national average of 24 years and 10 months. Property values in Emilia-Romagna also averaged lower, at €221,200 compared to the national average of €234,200. Borrowers in the region are also younger, with an average age of 38 years and 4 months, compared to the national average of 39 years and 3 months. Fixed rates accounted for 92.4% of requests in Emilia-Romagna, with variable rates comprising just 5.0%.
Provincial analysis within Emilia-Romagna reveals that Piacenza has the youngest mortgage applicants (average age 36 years and 7 months), while Parma has the oldest (39 years and 6 months). Forlì-Cesena boasts the longest mortgage durations (26 years and 10 months), while Modena has the shortest (24 years and 11 months). Rimini recorded the highest average mortgage amount (€166,933), while Ferrara had the lowest (€125,264). Bologna leads in average property value (€251,120), while Ferrara again has the lowest (€186,717).