Brazil is bracing for a surge in cancer cases, with the National Cancer Institute (Inca) projecting 781,000 latest diagnoses annually over the next three years. The forecast, released last week in Inca’s 2026-2028 estimates, attributes the increase to a combination of factors including an aging population, exposure to risk factors and delayed diagnoses.
The report also indicates that cancer is nearing cardiovascular disease as the leading cause of death in the country. Marcia Sarpa, coordinator of Prevention and Surveillance at Inca, emphasized the importance of proactive measures. “The estimates, more than statistics, demonstrate the importance of planning and executing actions of prevention, early detection and opportune access to cancer treatment,” she said.
Among Brazilian men, prostate cancer is projected to be the most common, accounting for 30.5% of cases, followed by colorectal cancer (10.3%), lung cancer (7.3%), stomach cancer (5.4%), and oral cavity cancer (4.8%). For women, breast cancer is expected to be the most prevalent, representing 30.0% of diagnoses, with colorectal cancer (10.5%), cervical cancer (7.4%), lung cancer (6.4%), and thyroid cancer (5.1%) following closely behind. Non-melanoma skin cancer, whereas the most frequent cancer in both sexes due to its high incidence, has a relatively low mortality rate and is therefore not included in the primary incidence lists.
Regional disparities in cancer incidence are also highlighted in the Inca report. Cervical cancer is particularly prevalent in the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, which also experience the highest rates of stomach cancer among men. Conversely, the South and Southeast regions show higher incidences of cancers linked to tobacco use, specifically lung and oral cavity cancers. According to the report, these patterns “reflect the interaction between demographic factors, environmental and occupational exposures, lifestyles and inequalities in access to health services.”
Inca is prioritizing primary prevention strategies, including vaccination against the Human Papillomavirus (HPV), tobacco control measures, promotion of healthy diets, and encouragement of physical activity. The institute also stresses the need for policies focused on timely diagnosis, particularly for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers.
The report concludes that investment in public health policies is crucial. “Investing in public health policies is investing in lives, ensuring that every Brazilian has better chances of prevention, care and survival in the face of cancer,” the document states.
