Russia‘s Southeast Asia Ambitions Face Economic Headwinds, Shadow of Taiwan
SINGAPORE – Despite designating Southeast Asia a foreign policy priority, Russia’s ability to establish a significant presence in the region is increasingly questioned due to domestic economic strains, according to a new analysis by Ian Storey in Putin’s Russia and Southeast Asia: The Kremlin’s Pivot to Asia and the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War (ISEAS – yusof Ishak Institute, 2025). While Moscow aspires to counterbalance Western influence, its economic leverage lags behind China‘s, and the sustainability of a full “pivot” remains uncertain.
The book details Russia’s growing interest in the region, but acknowledges the limitations of its economic power. Policy documents from the Russian Foreign Ministry outline Southeast Asia as a key area of focus, yet reports indicate Russia may struggle to maintain momentum given its internal economic challenges. Russia is eyeing Southeast Asian markets as potential economic boosts amid Western sanctions, especially in the energy sector.
Storey’s work does not directly address a potential conflict over Taiwan, but notes the significant regional implications of such a scenario. As nations like the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea assess their responses, Moscow-with existing interests in Northeast Asia-is highly likely to consider its own course of action. While open-source Russian reporting rarely discusses a Taiwan contingency, Russia is expected to play some role, potentially indirect.
A crucial factor will be the nature of Sino-Russian security cooperation, described by some analysts as a “quasi-alliance.” Recent Russian opinion pieces, including one published by Izvestia, have drawn parallels between the deployment of US Typhon missiles by Japan and the Philippines and overlapping threat perceptions between Moscow and Beijing. The article noted deployments by Tokyo and Manila, missile launchers loaded with mid-range projectiles such as the Tomahawk system.
The book is intended as essential reading for historians, scholars of Asian geopolitics, and policymakers interested in Russia’s role in the region, offering a valuable outlook on how Moscow is perceived within Southeast Asia and encouraging critical local reflection.
