Poland‘s Play-off Path: Three Potential Hurdles to the 2026 World Cup
Poland secured their place in the World Cup play-offs after topping their Nations League C division group, accumulating 16 points from 18 available against Armenia, the Faroe Islands, and Latvia. Their qualifying campaign saw them finish with 13 points in a group also featuring Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Wales, and Belgium. Now, the focus shifts to navigating a potentially challenging play-off route to reach the tournament in the USA, Mexico, and Canada.
While a favorable draw is possible, a worst-case scenario looms, presenting significant obstacles to Poland’s world Cup ambitions. This scenario highlights three especially formidable opponents: Ireland,Italy,Türkiye,and Denmark.
Ireland’s Late Surge: Ireland unexpectedly entered the play-off picture with a strong finish to qualifying, securing victories against Portugal (2-0) and Hungary (3-2) in dramatic away matches. This late momentum makes them a dangerous opponent in the semi-final stage.
Kosovo’s Unpredictability: Kosovo also presents a challenging prospect. During the qualifying rounds, they earned 11 points, including a point against Switzerland, four against Slovenia, and six against Sweden. Their performance demonstrates an ability to compete with established European nations.
The Final hurdle: Italy, Türkiye, or Denmark: the biggest challenge, tho, is anticipated in a potential play-off final. Playing the final match away from home would significantly reduce Poland’s chances of success. Furthermore, if teams from the higher-seeded pot prevail in their semi-finals, facing either Italy, Türkiye, or Denmark would position Poland as the clear underdog.
Italy, despite recent struggles – including difficulties defeating Israel and Moldova during qualifying – remains a team boasting considerable talent.Missing out on a third consecutive World Cup would be considered a national disgrace for the Italians. They have a 50% chance of facing Sweden or North Macedonia in the semi-finals, the teams that eliminated them from contention in the 2018 and 2022 World Cup play-offs.
Türkiye, unable to qualify directly due to a challenging group with Spain, demonstrated their strength by winning all four matches against Georgia and Bulgaria. They also achieved promotion to the A division of the Nations league (from which Poland was relegated) and reached the quarter-finals of Euro 2024.
Perhaps the biggest surprise among the potential opponents is Denmark. Brian Riemer’s team led their qualifying group for a significant period, but ultimately finished second after a disappointing end to the campaign: a 2-2 draw with Belarus at home and a 2-4 defeat against Scotland. Nevertheless, Denmark reached the knockout stage of Euro 2024 and the quarter-finals of the Nations League, where they lost to eventual champions Portugal after extra time.
the play-off draw will take place on Thursday at 1:00 p.m., with live coverage available on Przegląd Sportowy Onet. Nonetheless of the draw, Poland will need to overcome their semi-final opponent to keep their World Cup dreams alive, acknowledging that a loss would indicate they are not yet at the level required to compete on the world stage.
