This article paints a bleak picture of Venezuela under Maduro, arguing that his regime is crumbling due to a complete loss of credibility, both domestically and internationally, and is facing increasing external pressure from the US. Here’s a breakdown of the key arguments:
1. Maduro’s Regime is Built on Deception and is Losing Support:
* No Credibility: The opening statement, referencing the proverb about deception, sets the tone. The author asserts that Maduro and his allies have lost all credibility with the Venezuelan people, and his pronouncements are seen as empty posturing.
* Perpetual State of Shock: Life under Maduro is described as a constant state of abuse and arbitrary rule, devoid of constitutional order.
* Lack of Popular Support: The regime has no genuine popular support, evidenced by the catastrophic economic situation (300% inflation, widespread misery).There’s a growing question of why anyone would continue to support maduro given his failures.
2. US action is Framed as a Criminal, Not Just Political, Issue:
* Beyond Diplomatic Relations: The US approach, spearheaded by Trump, isn’t presented as a typical geopolitical conflict. Instead, it’s framed as a fight against a criminal association – the “Los Soles” cartel – with Maduro identified as a leader.
* Criminal Justification: The US justifies potential military action based on security threats and the health of its citizens, citing a New York court’s assessment. This allows the US to potentially bypass international law norms and treat the situation as a law enforcement operation against terrorists and drug traffickers.
* Aggressive tactics: The author points to the summary executions of suspected drug smugglers as evidence of the US’s willingness to take extreme measures.
3. Potential US Intervention & Political Motivations:
* Limited Invasion Likelihood: A full-scale invasion is considered unlikely, but not entirely ruled out given Trump’s unpredictability.
* “Surgical” Operations more Probable: The most likely scenario is targeted operations to disrupt drug trafficking logistics or capture cartel leaders.
* Domestic political Calculations: The author suggests Trump’s actions are heavily influenced by the upcoming US mid-term elections. A high-profile capture (like a leader of the “suns Cartel”) could be a politically beneficial “salvation table” for Trump.
4. The Path Forward: Negotiated Transition of Power:
* Maduro’s Accomplices are Reassessing: The author believes Maduro’s inner circle is beginning to question their loyalty.
* Negotiation is Key: The only viable solution is a negotiated transfer of power to Edmundo González Urrutia, who is presented as the legitimately elected president. This is seen as the best way to avoid further conflict and suffering for the Venezuelan people.
in essence, the article argues that maduro’s regime is on its last legs, facing both internal collapse and external pressure. It advocates for a peaceful, negotiated transition of power as the only way to prevent further disaster in Venezuela.
