East Coast Gas Supply Outlook Improves,But Long-Term Concerns Remain,ACCC Report Finds
Sydney,Australia – the outlook for gas supply on Australia’s east coast has eased for the first quarter of 2026,according to a new report released today by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).The report, monitoring gas supply and market operation, indicates sufficient gas is currently contracted to meet forecast demand, though long-term supply concerns persist.
The ACCC’s analysis, dated March 2025, shows that contracted gas supply for the first quarter of 2026 covers expected demand. However,the report notes that despite increased long-term supply deals signed this year for delivery in 2026 and 2027,the total volume of gas secured under these contracts remains below pre-2022 levels,with most agreements covering only a single year.
Prices offered by gas producers for 2026 supply have seen a slight decrease, falling by an average of 2 per cent to $13.12 per gigajoule (GJ) compared to the second half of 2024. Gas retailers offered an average price of $14.33/GJ for 2026 supply. For 2027, producer contracts averaged $13.93/GJ, while retailer contracts averaged $14.30/GJ. A total of 18 petajoules (PJ) of gas were contracted for 2026 supply, and 21 PJ for 2027.
Despite the implementation of gas policy measures – including the Gas Market Code (Gas Code), the commonwealth Heads of Agreement with LNG exporters (HoA), and the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) – the ACCC found these have not significantly improved outcomes for local gas users.
“There are limits to what the gas policy measures can achieve on their own if the underlying causes of inadequate supply and ineffective competition are not addressed,” said ACCC’s Ms. Brakey. “In addition, they may also be having some unintended incentive effects and causing inefficiencies in gas supply negotiations.”
The ACCC’s review revealed that reforms to the ADGSM in 2023 appear to have reduced LNG producers’ incentives to contribute to the domestic market, potentially exacerbating the risk of supply shortfalls. Furthermore, gas volumes offered and supplied by LNG producers to the domestic market have declined since the 2022 HoA was established, while LNG export volumes have increased.
The ACCC has submitted its observations and experience to the Gas Market Review, outlining recommendations for longer-term market efficiency and improvements to the current code, ADGSM, and HoA.
The ACCC’s inquiry, initially directed by the Australian Government in 2017 to improve gas market transparency and efficiency, was formally extended to 2030 on August 29, 2025, with a requirement for quarterly reporting. The next interim report is scheduled for release in December 2025.
