Hayabusa2‘s 2031 Asteroid Landing Plan Complex by Unexpectedly Small, Rapidly Spinning Target
Tokyo, Japan – Japan’s Hayabusa2 spacecraft, already celebrated for delivering asteroid samples from Ryugu in 2020, faces a significant challenge to its extended mission: its next target asteroid, 1998 KY26, is far smaller and spins much faster than previously understood, perhaps jeopardizing a planned landing in 2031.New observations reveal the asteroid is only 36 feet (11 meters) wide and completes a rotation in roughly five minutes - a stark contrast to earlier estimates.
Hayabusa2 made history as the world’s second triumphant asteroid sample return mission, following the initial Hayabusa mission to Itokawa in 2010. Following its successful Ryugu mission, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) extended Hayabusa2’s journey, setting its sights on 1998 KY26, a near-Earth object believed to contain approximately a million gallons of water. The mission aimed to gather further samples to deepen understanding of the solar system’s formation.
Though, a recent study published in Nature Communications details the revised understanding of 1998 KY26. Researchers, led by Toni Santana-Ros of the University of Alicante, Spain, combined new observations from observatories worldwide with existing radar data. Their findings indicate the asteroid is nearly three times smaller than the previously estimated 98 feet (30 meters) and rotates at approximately twice the speed.
“We found that the reality of the object is completely different from what it was previously described as,” Santana-Ros stated in a release from the European Southern Observatory.”One day on this asteroid lasts only five minutes!”
The implications for Hayabusa2 are substantial. The spacecraft successfully landed on the nearly 3,000-foot (900-meter) wide asteroid Ryugu twice in 2019, first in February and again in July to collect subsurface samples after creating an artificial crater. Landing on 1998 KY26, comparable in size to the spacecraft itself, presents a dramatically increased level of difficulty.
“The amazing story here is that we found that the size of the asteroid is comparable to the size of the spacecraft that is going to visit it!” Santana-Ros explained.”And we where able to characterize such a small object using our telescopes, which means that we can do it for other objects in the future.”
The research team utilized the european southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope,among other instruments,to gather the crucial data. While the findings complicate the landing plan, they also demonstrate the potential for characterizing even extremely small near-Earth objects – a capability with implications for future asteroid exploration and potential resource extraction.
JAXA has not yet announced any changes to the 2031 rendezvous, but the new data will undoubtedly necessitate a reassessment of landing strategies. the mission remains a significant undertaking, promising valuable insights into the composition and origins of water-rich asteroids, even if a landing proves unfeasible. The world now awaits further developments as scientists prepare for this challenging, yet potentially groundbreaking, encounter.
