The Uncertain Future of American Foreign Policy After Trump
Donald Trump’s presidency marked a critically important disruption to long-standing American foreign policy traditions. While the ultimate impact remains to be seen,his time in office has undeniably initiated a period of transition,leaving the future direction of US engagement with the world uncertain. It’s unlikely that policy will simply continue on its current path after he leaves office, nor is a full return to pre-Trump approaches feasible.
A key element of this shift is the surprising disconnect between Trump’s policies and public opinion. Despite representing a departure from established norms, many of his signature foreign policy initiatives lack broad support within the American populace.Even within his own base, skepticism exists. For example, a recent poll by the Economic Innovation group revealed that 51% of American workers favor free trade, contradicting Trump’s tariff policies.
Despite Trump’s attempts to advocate for a more limited American role globally, support for US leadership remains strong. A June poll conducted by the Ronald Reagan Institute found that 73% of Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republicans believe the US should be “more engaged and take the lead” in foreign policy, and 83% affirm a “moral obligation to stand up for human rights and democracy” internationally.
The unique nature of Trump’s approach – heavily reliant on his personal relationships and instincts – further complicates a simple reversion to past practices.There is no clear successor within the Republican party capable of replicating his style and maintaining the same level of support for his unconventional methods. Moreover, after two terms of disruption, any American leader would struggle to credibly promise a return to pre-Trump foreign policy traditions.
Experts like Mira rapp-Hooper and Rebecca Lissner argue that the US now requires a “zero-based” review of its foreign policy. This entails a fundamental re-evaluation of national interests and values, and how best to pursue them, starting from a clean slate. The 2028 presidential election will likely be a contest of competing visions for America’s future role in the world.
This period of uncertainty presents both challenges and opportunities for regions like Southeast Asia. while instability is a potential result, it also opens the door to a perhaps less security-focused, less values-driven, and more economically-oriented relationship between the US and the region. Alternatively,a period of American retrenchment is also possible,alongside a variety of other outcomes.
Ultimately, the most prudent course for nations navigating this transition may be to prioritize flexibility and maintain a range of foreign policy options. Aligning too closely with either the US or China during this period could limit future opportunities in pursuit of short-term predictability. Trump’s legacy, therefore, is not a defined new policy, but a period of fundamental reassessment and potential realignment in American foreign policy.
