Bolsonaro‘s Fate Hangs in the Balance: What History Tells Us About Coup Plotters
brasília, Brazil – Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is on the precipice of a historic reckoning. Brazil’s Supreme Court is expected to deliver a verdict by September 12th regarding charges that Bolsonaro and his allies plotted to overturn the results of the 2022 election, which saw Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva return to power. The stakes are incredibly high: a conviction could land Bolsonaro in prison, marking a dramatic fall from grace for the controversial leader.
The accusations leveled against Bolsonaro are serious. Prosecutors allege a concerted effort to undermine the democratic process, including a potential assassination plot against Lula da Silva and the incitement of the January 8th, 2023 riot in Brasília – a brazen attempt to destabilize the government and pave the way for a military intervention. Bolsonaro vehemently denies any wrongdoing.
But as political scientists who have meticulously documented the aftermath of coup attempts worldwide, the historical precedent is clear: plotting against a democratically elected government rarely ends well. Our research, culminating in the ”Historical Dictionary of Modern coups D’état” and a extensive dataset of post-WWII coup attempts, reveals a sobering truth – while not all coup plotters are brought to justice, accountability is increasingly common.
(Image: Supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro clash with police outside the Planalto Palace in brasilia on Jan. 8, 2023. Evaristo Sa/AFP via Getty Images)
Coups and Consequences: A Global Perspective
The outcome for failed coup leaders is far from uniform. Some, like Christian Malanga, a former army captain who led a violent coup attempt in the Democratic Republic of Congo, meet a swift and brutal end during the takeover itself. Malanga was killed in a shootout with loyalist forces in May 2024, a stark reminder of the risks involved.
However,the majority survive. And while punishment is typical, its severity is heavily influenced by the nature of the coup attempt. “Self-coups” – were an incumbent leader attempts to consolidate power unconstitutionally – often result in impeachment and removal from office, as seen with indonesia’s Abdurrahman Wahid. Attempts to oust a sitting government, like the one Bolsonaro is accused of orchestrating, can carry far more severe penalties, including lengthy prison sentences.
The coming days will be critical for Brazil, and for Bolsonaro himself.The Supreme Court’s decision will not only determine the fate of a former president but will also send a powerful message about the resilience of Brazilian democracy and the consequences of attempting to subvert it. Regardless of the verdict,history suggests that even a conviction may not necessarily extinguish Bolsonaro’s political ambitions – a phenomenon observed across the globe in the wake of failed power grabs.
Key Takeaways:
Bolsonaro faces a potential prison sentence if convicted of plotting to overturn the 2022 election.
The accusations include a plot to assassinate Lula da Silva and inciting the January 8th riot.
Historical data shows coup plotters frequently enough face punishment, ranging from impeachment to imprisonment, though outcomes vary.
**Accountability for coup attempts is
