Dow Futures Rise as Wall Street Focuses on Inflation Ahead of Expected Fed Rate Cut
NEW YORK – September 7, 2025 – dow futures are trending upward as investors closely monitor inflation data, the key factor that could influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. Wall Street is widely anticipating a rate cut at the central bank’s meeting on September 17,with CME’s FedWatch tool currently indicating a 92% probability of a quarter-point reduction.
Recent labor market data has fueled expectations of easing monetary policy. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, noted that “most U.S. industries have been shedding jobs rather than adding them for several months,” a pattern he associates with economic recession.
Though, a surprise surge in inflation remains the primary risk to a rate cut.While the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs has been less pronounced than initially feared,upcoming economic releases will provide crucial insights.economists forecast the producer price index for August, due Wednesday, to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, a deceleration from July’s 0.9% jump. The consumer price index,scheduled for release Thursday,is projected to rise 0.3% for the month, accelerating from 0.2% in July. Annually, the CPI is expected to reach 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% the prior month.
Core consumer prices are anticipated to remain stable at a monthly rate of 0.3% and an annual rate of 3.1%,but both headline and core CPI figures would still exceed the Fed’s 2% target.
Further influencing the economic landscape, the Labor Department will release preliminary benchmark revisions to its establishment survey data for 2025 on Tuesday. Previous revisions this year have generally lowered prior readings, and additional downward adjustments are possible.
Political factors are also in play, with Fed Governor Lisa Cook facing an attempt by President Trump to remove her from office. A judge’s ruling on the case, expected in the coming week, will determine her participation in the FOMC meeting. The Senate may also vote on Stephen Miran’s nomination to the Fed’s board of governors, possibly adding another voice to the decision-making process.
