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Bitcoin faces Short-Term Fragility Amidst Positive Macro Outlook
August 18, 2025 – Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating a period of technical fragility, but macroeconomic conditions suggest a potential for further price increases, according to analysis from Swissblock. The firm points to a contrast between the current habitat and the peak of 2021, when BTC topped out coinciding with the start of quantitative tightening (QT) and interest rate hikes.
“Technically the situation is fragile,” Swissblock stated. “but the macro-economic conditions point towards more liquidity. That tilts the balance in favor of further increases.”
However, not all analysts share this optimistic outlook. Crypto trader Cheds has identified a potential “uphrust” pattern in Bitcoin’s price charts, characterized by a failed attempt to sustain a breakout above a resistance level. cheds suggests this pattern often precedes a bearish reversal, describing it as a “bull staircase” that can lead to a trend collapse. He also highlighted a notable red candle on August 14th as an indicator of increasing selling pressure.
Historical precedent supports concerns about failed breakouts. In 2021, Bitcoin attempted to surpass the $69,000 level but subsequently experienced a sharp decline, initiating a prolonged bear market.
The current macroeconomic environment differs considerably from 2021, with expectations of potential quantitative easing (QE) and interest rate cuts on the horizon. QE involves a central bank injecting liquidity into the financial system by purchasing assets, while rate cuts aim to stimulate economic activity by lowering borrowing costs. These factors are generally considered positive for risk assets like Bitcoin.
The debate continues: will Bitcoin continue its upward
