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Small Cell Lung Cancer Incidence Set for Steep Decline by 2050
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World Today news.">
A new analysis presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology 2025 annual meeting projects a significant decline in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) incidence in the United States through 2050. The anticipated drop is attributed primarily to the decreasing rates of tobacco smoking among Americans, continuing a trend observed between 2000 and 2021.
Projected Decline in Small Cell Lung Cancer Cases
The research, led by Mariah Malak Bilalaga, MD, of MedStar Health, highlights that while previous studies have examined SCLC incidence, this analysis provides updated estimates considering recent demographic changes. The findings suggest a significant shift in smoking habits is driving the decline, underscoring the importance of ongoing tobacco control efforts.
Investigators analyzed data from the surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 17) database, identifying over 120,000 SCLC cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2021. The data revealed a consistent decrease in cases during this period. adjusted for age,the incidence of SCLC per 100,000 peopel fell from 11.9 in 2000 to 6.0 in 2021, representing an annual percent change of -4.3%. Declines were consistent across genders and racial groups.
Did you Know? the American Cancer Society estimates that roughly 80% of lung cancer deaths are linked to smoking 3.
Factors Contributing to the Decline
The projected acceleration in the decline of SCLC incidence is linked to changing patterns of tobacco use. A 2023 study showed that smoking rates among young adults (18-24) plummeted from nearly 1 in 5 to just 4.9% between 2011 and 2022, while remaining relatively stable for adults aged 65 and older 2.This significant reduction in smoking among younger generations is expected to have a profound impact on future lung cancer rates.
Analyzed by birth cohort, the study found each successive birth cohort had a 7.7% decline in SCLC rates.
Pro Tip: Quitting smoking at any age can significantly reduce your risk of developing lung cancer.
Future Projections for Small Cell Lung Cancer
Based on past data, researchers forecast that between 2022 and 2050, the incidence of SCLC will decrease even more rapidly.The projected annual percentage change is -5.5% for males, -6.2% for females,-6.1% for non-Hispanic Whites,and -5.7% for non-Hispanic Blacks.this translates to an annual decrease of 5.9%.
These projections underscore the effectiveness of tobacco control measures and highlight the potential for further reductions in lung cancer incidence through continued prevention efforts.
| Demographic Group | Annual Percentage Change (95% CI) |
|---|---|
| Males | -5.5% (-8.0 to -3.0) |
| Females | -6.2% (-8.8 to -3.7) |
| Non-Hispanic Whites | -6.1% (-9.1 to -3.3) |
| Non-Hispanic Blacks | -5.7% (-14.6 to -2.3) |
| Overall | -5.9% (-8.5 to -3.5) |
What other preventative measures can be taken to reduce the risk of lung cancer?
