Israel’s Swift Strikes Cripple Iran’s Military Capacity

Military analysts suggest Tehran’s missile capabilities are proving inadequate.

One week into the most significant Israeli assault on Iran to date, Tehran faces extreme pressure. Israel has swiftly gained air superiority, crippling a substantial portion of Iran’s air defenses. Military analysts are now assessing the long-term consequences of this conflict.

Rapid Deterioration of Iranian Defenses

Within hours of the initial attack, Israel achieved dominance in Iranian airspace. They disabled approximately 120 Iranian air defense systems, roughly a third of the pre-war total. Simultaneously, Israel has targeted Iranian military leaders, severely hampering their ability to respond effectively.

Iran has retaliated with ballistic missiles, launching over 400. However, around half of these were fired in the initial response. The intensity of these barrages has since diminished. Iran is also likely facing limitations in weapon production. It was estimated by the U.S. that Tehran could produce about 50 missiles monthly before hostilities began.

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“The sheer speed of ballistic missiles makes them dangerous weapons.”

—Analyst Name, Title

Despite these efforts, a portion of the missiles launched have evaded Israeli air defenses, with around 10% successfully striking targets. In 2023, the U.S. military provided Israel with an additional $1.2 billion in military aid to replenish its Iron Dome missile defense system (U.S. State Dept.).

Weapons Systems and Strategic Challenges

Intercepting ballistic missiles is a primary task of Israel’s Arrow 3 system, which can neutralize incoming missiles outside the Earth’s atmosphere. The US has provided support with a Thaad system and destroyers. The cost of interceptors remains high, with Arrow 3 costing millions.

A key question is how many interceptors Israel has available. There are reports that the country is running low. Sophisticated defensive missiles need time to manufacture, a challenge previously seen in Ukraine, where the number of missiles fired by Russia exceeds the air defenses available.

Israel has reportedly advanced further in its attack than anticipated, eliminating numerous high-ranking military figures and scientists. With little to no air defense threat, Israeli jets are able to target sites in Iran with apparent impunity. Even if Israeli supplies of attack missiles diminish, their air dominance grants them the capability to continue attacks, albeit at a slower pace.

The missile analyst Fabian Hinz concluded that Iran’s capabilities are “inefficient.” He further noted that the “deterrence balance” between the two nations is shifting, possibly changing back in Tehran’s favor if a significantly higher amount of the remaining missiles were to strike population centers. However, there is no sign that is happening at present.