1.05 million people in Lebanon face acute food insecurity
Between September 2026 and February 2027, approximately 1.05 million people in Lebanon—representing 21 percent of the analyzed population—are experiencing IPC Phase 3 acute food insecurity or worse. This total includes 52,000 individuals facing Emergency conditions in Phase 4 and roughly 997,000 people enduring Crisis levels in Phase 3.
The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification assessment shows widespread hardship across all population groups. Refugees and recently displaced Lebanese face the most severe pressures on their purchasing power and daily livelihoods.
Two Conflicts Accelerate Economic Strain
The ongoing food security crisis stems from the cumulative impact of two consecutive conflicts in less than two years, compounded by fragile macroeconomic conditions and soaring living costs. While an October 2025 analysis measured the fallout of the 2023–2024 conflict, the current evaluation captures outcomes following a second major escalation that began in March 2026. Hostilities in southern Lebanon continue despite a June 2026 ceasefire agreement and ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Markets remain functional and food is generally available across most regions. However, weak income opportunities and depleted household assets severely restrict economic access to basic nutrition. Households rely heavily on accumulating debt, consumption-based coping strategies, and humanitarian food security assistance to survive.
Projected Deterioration in Mid-2027
Food insecurity is projected to worsen between March and July 2027. During this window, approximately 1.15 million people—or 24 percent of the analyzed population—will likely face Phase 3 conditions or worse. The expected deterioration includes 97,000 individuals sliding into Phase 4 Emergency levels.
Several compounding factors drive the negative outlook for the upcoming quarters. Declining humanitarian aid, persistent insecurity, delayed reconstruction efforts, and elevated fuel prices continue to squeeze household budgets. Agricultural communities face environmental risks as excessive rainfall and sudden deluges during the late-fall-to-spring period threaten seasonal wheat sowing and fragile topsoil.
Funding Gaps Threaten Vulnerable Populations
In the projection period, only 30 percent of the Lebanese in Phase 3 or above are planned to be supported, as well as only 55 percent of the Syrian refugees recently displaced after December 2024.