Why U.S. Counties Are Seeing More Deaths Than Births
Nearly two-thirds of U.S. counties recorded more deaths than births between July 2024 and July 2025, according to county-level data released by the Census Bureau. The figures point to a shifting national demographic distribution driven by an aging population, falling birth rates, and slowing growth across thousands of communities.
The United States grew dramatically over the past six decades, expanding from just over 179 million residents in 1960 to nearly 342 million by July 2025, according to the Census Bureau. High birth rates, a younger overall population, and greater receptivity to immigration fueled that expansion. Yet recent data suggests that long-standing demographic patterns could be shifting profoundly.
Racial and ethnic diversity has increased alongside that growth. White residents made up more than 80 percent of the U.S. population in 1960, with Black residents comprising most of the non-white population. By 2025, Census Bureau figures show that the white population dropped to 56 percent, while Latinos and Asians—who accounted for just 6 percent of the total in 1960—grew to make up 28 percent of the country.
Why Natural Population Growth Is Slowing Down Across American Counties
Falling birth rates and an aging populace mean that a large percentage of counties now see little to no natural growth from births. Between July 2024 and July 2025, 2,055 out of 3,144 U.S. counties recorded more deaths than births. About half of those 2,055 counties still managed to grow overall, but only because domestic migration from other parts of the country or immigration offset their natural population loss.
The other half of those counties saw overall population declines. While most counties with more deaths than births sit in long-depopulating rural regions, the trend has increasingly reached larger urban centers. St. Louis County in Missouri, Allegheny County in Pennsylvania, Onondaga County in New York, and Cuyahoga County in Ohio now regularly record more deaths than births each year.
Other major urban areas sit right on the threshold. Orleans Parish in Louisiana recorded just 32 more births than deaths during the one-year period ending July 1, 2025. Multnomah County in Oregon logged only 223 more births than deaths over the same timeframe.
How Restrictive Policies and Generational Shifts Shape Future Growth
Immigration has been an increasingly important source of population growth for many counties. However, much more restrictive immigration policies could lead the country to experience net negative immigration for the first time since the Great Depression. This could impact what had been, until now, an increasingly important source of population growth for many counties.
At the same time, the country’s racial diversity may be speeding up as older, whiter generational cohorts begin to leave the scene. As these trends converge, their impact will alter conditions in counties, large and small, throughout the country.
Data from the Census Bureau indicates that additional large urban counties will likely join the list of areas with more deaths than births in the coming years.