Khamenei’s Bunker: A Nation Grapples With War’s Fallout

Iran’s Supreme Leader Faces New Realities After Intense Conflict

Following almost two weeks concealed in a bunker during the war with Israel, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, might soon re-emerge. This return comes after a ceasefire brokered by the US and Qatar, yet the path ahead appears fraught with challenges and uncertainty.

A Leader in Hiding, a Nation in Turmoil

Fearful of potential assassination, Khamenei remained incommunicado, even from some government officials. Despite the ceasefire, caution is advised, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hasn’t ruled out targeting the Iranian leader. When he does surface, he’ll confront widespread devastation and a weakened nation.

The war has inflicted substantial damage on Iran’s military infrastructure, with repeated attacks on Revolutionary Guard and army bases. While the full extent is disputed, the attacks suggest a considerable reduction in Iran’s military capabilities.

Many Iranians now hold Khamenei accountable for initiating the conflict. They blame him for pursuing the destruction of Israel and for the belief that a nuclear program would secure his regime. Sanctions have also crippled the Iranian economy. Professor Lina Khatib from Harvard University believes, Ali Khamenei is likely to become the Islamic Republic’s last ‘Supreme Leader’ in the full sense of the word.

Growing Dissent and Internal Conflicts

During the conflict, the Israeli forces swiftly took control of a large part of Iran’s airspace. The attacks resulted in the deaths of top Revolutionary Guard and army commanders. Damage to known nuclear facilities, which led to years of sanctions, is still being assessed.

During the war, some former regime figures urged religious scholars in Qom to mediate a leadership change. Professor Ali Ansari from the University of St Andrews stated, There will be a reckoning. It’s quite clear that there are huge disagreements within the leadership, and there’s also huge unhappiness among ordinary people.

Solidarity Amidst Adversity

Many Iranians displayed solidarity, with towns and villages opening their doors to those fleeing bombardments. Shopkeepers lowered prices, and neighbors assisted each other. However, many understand that a regime change is what Israel seeks.

Khamenei has suppressed opposition throughout his nearly four-decade rule. Now, with a ceasefire in place, concerns mount over potential crackdowns. Since the war’s start, at least six people have been executed on spying charges, with hundreds arrested. One Iranian woman fears a regime that may turn its anger on its own people.

Missile Silos and Nuclear Concerns

Iran’s ballistic missile silos, hidden in tunnels under mountains, appear to have survived the attacks. The Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, noted that Iran launched around 2,500 surface-to-surface missiles. There is great concern in Western capitals over Iran’s possible rush to build a nuclear bomb.

Although Iran’s nuclear facilities may be set back, the nation has moved its enriched uranium stockpile to a secure location. Should the uranium reach 90% enrichment, it could yield about nine bombs. The Iranian parliament voted to diminish collaboration with the UN’s atomic watchdog. The NPT, which Iran may exit, allows hardliners to construct a bomb.

At 86, Ayatollah Khamenei’s future is uncertain. He may focus on assuring a smooth transition of power. Top commanders of the Revolutionary Guard, loyal to the supreme leader, could take power from behind the scenes. Iran’s economy contracted by 5.3% in 2024, reflecting the strain of sanctions and conflict (IMF).