The Weight of Expectation: Venezuela’s Imminent Shift
A fundamental truth of governance is this: when the state abdicates its responsibility to protect its citizens, legitimacy flows to those who can provide security. In Venezuela, that space is increasingly filled not by internal forces, but by external actors, most notably washington. However, a more profound shift is underway, one driven not by external influence, but by a seismic change within Venezuelan society itself.
The long-feared specter of civil war, a common justification for authoritarianism across latin America’s past transitions – from Pinochet’s chile to post-military Brazil – has, remarkably, dissolved in Venezuela. A staggering 93.69% of Venezuelans beleive a civil war is not imminent should the current regime falter. This isn’t merely the absence of fear; its an active anticipation of a new beginning, described by 89.36% as a future worthy of national celebration.A nation poised to celebrate is a nation that has already chosen a path forward. The regime’s primary tool – the manipulation of fear – has lost its power.
This shift extends beyond simply avoiding conflict. It’s a re-evaluation of legitimacy, both institutional and, crucially, moral. Despite attempts by the current government to discredit them, polls reveal overwhelming recognition of the opposition. 90.08% now recognize edmundo González as the legitimate president, and 84.49% celebrate the recognition of María Corina Machado with the Nobel peace Prize. Venezuela has decisively redrawn the lines of acceptability, isolating the current leadership and embracing the democratic opposition. The battle for truth has been won; a single narrative now dominates.
But the most compelling indicator of change isn’t political calculation, it’s emotional resonance. 81.97% of Venezuelans express hope regarding recent developments.Hope isn’t just a feeling; it’s a foundational element of social order. It signifies that transition isn’t merely a possibility, but a deeply held expectation. And in politics, what is expected ofen becomes inevitable.
The debate has moved beyond if Chavismo-Madurismo will fall, to how, when, and on what terms. This clarity echoes the decisive moments of transitions in Iberia and the Southern Cone during the 1970s. The consensus is so broad that discussions have moved beyond defining the exit itself,focusing instead on the details of implementation.
Venezuela isn’t waiting for change; it is actively demanding it.The boundaries of the politically possible haven’t gradually shifted – they have collapsed upon the current regime, opening a clear and urgent path towards transition. like a geological shift, the tectonic plate of public opinion is inexorably pushing towards a new order.
As historian Edward Gibbon observed regarding the fall of Rome,civilizations rarely succumb to self-destruction,but are often undone by external forces. In Venezuela, the decline wasn’t a single event, but a slow, corrosive erosion. However, the decisive factor wasn’t institutional decay, but a collective awakening.
The November 2025 survey paints a clear picture: Venezuela is not passively awaiting change, but actively driving it. With nine out of ten citizens aligned, politics transcends mere arithmetic and enters the realm of fundamental societal forces.
The question is no longer if the current order will fall,but what form the next will take – institutionally,internationally,and morally. The answer,as history demonstrates across Latin America,will depend on the ability of leaders to translate this overwhelming social victory into a robust and enduring state architecture.
Venezuelan history has definitively turned a page. What follows, whether welcomed or resisted, will be a refoundation.
