US to Run Venezuela After Maduro’s Capture: What It Means
here’s a breakdown of the key facts from the provided text, focusing on the main points and arguments:
Venezuela’s Oil Industry & Return of US Companies:
* Hesitation from Big Oil: Ali Moshiri (former Chevron executive) states major oil companies won’t return to Venezuela without significant signs of political and economic stability.
* Limited Short-Term Gains: While Chevron and smaller companies could increase oil output somewhat quickly, substantial growth will take years due to political issues, dilapidated infrastructure, and the need to rebuild operations.
* Infrastructure Challenges: Salas emphasizes the difficulty of exporting Venezuelan oil, citing collapsed infrastructure and the need for advanced technology and massive investment to handle the heavy crude oil.
* Lack of Enthusiasm: Both experts express skepticism about a rapid influx of American oil companies.
US History of Regime Change:
* Pattern of Unsuccessful Interventions: The article draws a parallel between the recent mission regarding Maduro and a long history of US-led regime change attempts in Latin America and beyond. It argues these interventions often have negative, unintended consequences.
* Examples of Failed Interventions:
* Iraq (2003): Initial success in removing Saddam Hussein led to years of insurgency, thousands of American deaths, and the rise of ISIS.
* south Vietnam (1963): Backing a coup against Ngo Dinh Diem resulted in unrest and, according to Lyndon Johnson, escalated the Vietnam War.
* Iran (1953): Overthrowing Mossadegh led to the Shah’s return, ultimately contributing to the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
* Cautionary Perspective: Glenn Corn (former CIA executive) highlights the Iraq example, noting a triumphant military operation doesn’t guarantee a positive outcome afterward.
Overall theme: The article presents a cautious view of both the potential for US oil companies to quickly revitalize Venezuela’s oil industry and the wisdom of US intervention in foreign governments.It suggests that both endeavors are fraught with challenges and have a history of producing undesirable results.