US Tariffs Ruled Unlawful: What’s Next for Global Trade?

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday ruled against President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, a decision that immediately invalidates billions of dollars in levies but is expected to trigger a new wave of trade uncertainty as the administration seeks alternative legal justifications for protectionist measures.

The ruling strikes down tariffs implemented under the guise of national emergency, estimated to have generated over $175 billion in revenue, according to the court’s decision. While the immediate impact is a substantial reduction in the trade-weighted average U.S. Tariff – falling from 15.4% to 8.3%, as estimated by Global Trade Alert – analysts predict the reprieve will be short-lived.

“In general, I believe it will just bring in a new period of high uncertainty in world trade, as everybody tries to figure out what the U.S. Tariff policy will be going forward,” said Varg Folkman, an analyst at the European Policy Centre. “In the conclude it’s going to look pretty much the same.”

Responding to the ruling, President Trump announced the imposition of new global tariffs of 10% for an initial 150-day period, and indicated uncertainty regarding refunds for previously collected tariffs. This move underscores the administration’s commitment to utilizing tariffs as a trade tool, despite the legal setback.

The decision particularly impacts countries facing higher U.S. Tariff levels. China, Brazil, and India will see double-digit percentage point cuts in tariffs, though rates will remain elevated. The ruling similarly throws into question the status of bilateral deals struck between the U.S. And roughly two dozen countries designed to mitigate the impact of the tariffs. These nations are now evaluating whether the Supreme Court’s decision provides leverage to renegotiate those agreements.

Bernd Lange, chair of the trade committee of the European Parliament, stated on X (formerly Twitter), “The era of unlimited, arbitrary tariffs … might now be coming to an end.” He added that the EU will carefully evaluate the ruling and its consequences, with lawmakers scheduled to ratify the EU-U.S. Trade pact as soon as Monday.

The United Kingdom, which agreed to a baseline 10% tariff with Washington, expects its privileged trading position with the United States to continue, according to a government statement released Friday.

Economists at ING bank suggest the core structure of U.S. Trade policy remains intact. “The scaffolding has come down, but the building remains under construction. No matter how today’s ruling reads, tariffs are here to stay.”

Recent analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that the bulk of the financial burden from Trump’s tariffs has been borne by American consumers and businesses, a dynamic that may influence the administration’s future approach. Despite the tariffs, China reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, driven by increased exports to non-U.S. Markets.

However, some analysts caution against expecting widespread renegotiation of existing bilateral deals. Folkman of the EPC suggested that countries may prefer to maintain the status quo rather than risk further disruption, recalling the chaos caused by Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs in 2025. Niclas Poitiers, a research fellow at Bruegel, highlighted political risks surrounding the EU-U.S. Trade deal, suggesting it could potentially unravel given perceptions that Europe conceded too much in the negotiations.

The International Monetary Fund recently forecast global growth at 3.3% in 2026, a figure that reflects a degree of resilience despite ongoing trade tensions.