US Supreme Court to Rule If Kalshi Faces Sports Betting Rules
Prediction markets face a Dec. deadline. 7 deadline at the Supreme Court as several U.S. states and the NFL challenge whether platforms like Kalshi should face traditional sports betting rules.
Three billion dollars was wagered on the Super Bowl this year, drawing bets not just on the final score of the NFL finale, but on whether actress Sydney Sweeney would appear in a commercial or which song superstar Bad Bunny would perform first during the halftime show, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported.
Prediction market providers Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for 1.6 billion dollars of that trading volume. These platforms currently operate with almost no regulation.
Several states, aligned with the NFL, want to change that oversight. They filed an action before the Supreme Court seeking stricter regulation of manipulation risks and individual jurisdiction for each state rather than federal supervision, according to the FAZ report.
The court pushed Kalshi’s response deadline from Nov. 9 to Dec. 7. Kalshi entered the sports market in 2025 after the Supreme Court ruled in 2024 that election outcome wagers could be placed on prediction markets.
Traditional sportsbooks with bookmaker odds brought in 13 billion dollars in betting volume in the United States in April 2026 alone. Kalshi and Polymarket recorded a combined trading volume of about 24 billion dollars during the same period, with 80 percent tied to sporting events. Unlike traditional sports betting operators such as Tipico or Bwin, prediction markets rely on financial contracts where participants buy “Yes” and “No” shares.
Instead of bookmaker margins, prediction markets profit from transaction fees. This structural difference places these contracts under the federal jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than state gambling regulators. Michael Selig, nominated by Donald Trump to chair the CFTC in October 2025, supports the model.
“The CFTC will no longer stand idly by as overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by attempting to ban these exciting products within their territory,” he said at his taking office.
Opponents argue the markets invite manipulation. Contracts have allowed wagers on the number of fouls per game or the opening play call, areas where officials and players hold direct influence. While the NFL maintains partnerships with traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics, leagues such as the NHL, MLS, and NBA have signed deals with prediction platforms.
“We want to ensure the removal of contract offerings that are vulnerable to manipulation,” NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman told Front Office Sports regarding transparent cooperation with the platforms.
Legal challenges persist regarding consumer access and state tax revenues. Daniel Wallach, an attorney specializing in sports betting, told NPR that Kalshi’s offerings fall under gambling laws and require oversight from all 50 states. Meanwhile, the American Gaming Association reported 3.71 billion dollars in sports betting tax revenues for 2025.
Disclaimer: The insights provided in this article are for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute medical advice or sports betting recommendations.