US Attack on Iran: Why Framing Matters | War Risk

Donald Trump’s increasingly assertive rhetoric regarding Iran has coincided with growing speculation about a potential U.S. Military strike, though analysts express doubt about the feasibility of such an action. The former president has publicly focused on Iran’s nuclear program as a potential justification for military intervention, a position he reiterated in late January.

The possibility of a U.S. Attack has already impacted global markets, driving up oil prices earlier this year, according to CNBC. However, experts suggest that a strike would be a complex undertaking, requiring a level of military commitment the U.S. May not be prepared to provide. This assessment comes after a 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025 significantly degraded, but did not neutralize, Iran’s military capabilities.

That conflict, initiated by Israel, involved extensive aerial exchanges and targeted strikes within both countries. Iranian state television headquarters in Tehran sustained damage during the fighting, and Israeli air defenses were heavily engaged intercepting incoming missiles over Tel Aviv. The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to the Indian Ocean during the escalation, with sailors preparing Boeing EA-18G Growler aircraft, as documented in a January 21, 2026, photograph released by the Navy.

Despite the damage inflicted during the June 2025 war, Iran retains substantial military capabilities. This reality raises the risk of a protracted conflict should hostilities resume, particularly if Iranian leadership perceives a future attack as an existential threat.

Currently, Iran and the United States are considering a second round of talks regarding Iran’s nuclear program, following an initial round held after the conclusion of the 12-day war with Israel. The outcome of these discussions, and whether they will proceed, remains uncertain. As of February 14, 2026, no further meetings have been publicly scheduled.