United Ireland: Costs Offset Within Decade, Report Says
A newly released study suggests that while a unified Ireland would incur €3 billion in expenses during its first year, economic growth would eliminate those financial burdens within ten years.
Financial Projections for a United Ireland
According to the joint report by Dublin City University and Ulster University, an initial €1 billion public expenditure investment would steadily decrease the overall cost.
Depending on economic expansion, the report projects a public finance deficit lasting between five and nine years. This is the first peer-reviewed study estimating the financial implications of unification over its initial decade.
The research indicates that the Republic of Ireland would inherit an approximate €1.75 billion public spending deficit from Northern Ireland.
Wage and Pension Considerations
Implementing a 48% increase in public pay over time would align Northern Ireland’s wages with those in the Republic of Ireland. Equalizing salaries would amount to €152 million annually for 15 years, the study notes.
Moreover, balancing public sector pensions would require roughly €115 million per year for 40 years, according to the report’s findings.
Economic Growth Potential
The report suggests that Northern Ireland could diminish its deficit through economic growth, based on three different scenarios. Prior calculations, the authors contend, have grossly exaggerated the probable real cost of unity.
Professor John Doyle, Vice President for Research at Dublin City University and one of the report’s authors, stated, There is no obvious reason why Northern Ireland would remain so much poorer and so much less economically productive that, for example Munster.
Government’s Stance
Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe has reaffirmed the government’s commitment
to a united Ireland. This came after Sinn Féin TD Matt Carthy questioned the government’s dedication to planning and preparing for such a union.
Speaking in the Dáil, Mr. Donohoe emphasized that the current coalition, as well as previous administrations, have clearly demonstrated their commitment
to the cause.
He added they have also specified the necessary actions to bring us closer together and to unite this island.
That’s already happening,
Mr. Donohoe stated, citing the Shared Island Fund and the government’s efforts to deal with Brexit
as examples.
He also noted that those who highlight economic consequences
are not necessarily opponents
of a united Ireland.
We should be able to have a fair and open debate regarding an issue that is so important,
the minister said, adding that the Government will propose practical steps to bring us together.
During questioning, Mr. Carthy referenced the DCU and Ulster University report, asserting that it highlights the reunification of Ireland is a huge opportunity for us all.
The report asserts, The cost of a united Ireland has been exaggerated partly because what is called the UK subvention has been misunderstood and misinterpreted.
Furthermore, it states, At the same time, the potential for economic growth in an all-island economy, where Northern Ireland is once again inside the European Union, has not received sufficient attention.
Mr. Carthy believes the costs of unity would be significantly lower than previously claimed by those put forward opponents of Irish unity.
He added that the research delivers a fatal blow to any economic arguments that might have been presented against a united Ireland.
According to the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, the population of Northern Ireland was estimated to be 1.9 million in 2021, highlighting the scale of integration required in any reunification scenario NISRA 2021.
Mr. Carthy urges the Government to step up and grasp the massive opportunities for all of the people of Ireland’s 32 counties.
He concluded, This generation in my view can reunite Ireland but the Government needs to come off the bench and get onto the pitch.
