UConn vs. UCLA: NCAA Tournament Prediction, Odds & Model Picks for 2026

PHILADELPHIA – UConn advanced to the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament with an 82-71 victory over UCLA on Friday night, setting up a matchup against Michigan State. The Huskies’ win at the Xfinity Mobile Arena came after a closely contested first-round game for both teams, with UCLA narrowly defeating UCF 75-71.

UConn, the No. 2 seed in the East Region, improved to 30-5 on the season. UCLA, seeded seventh, fell to 24-11. This marked only the second meeting in the history of the two storied basketball programs; UCLA won the first encounter in the 1995 Elite Eight, 102-96.

According to ESPN Analytics, UConn has a 3.4% chance of winning the national championship, while UCLA’s odds stand at 66.6%. The Huskies are currently favored by 4.5 points in the latest odds, with the over/under set at 136.5 points. UConn is at -195 on the money line and UCLA is the +160 underdog.

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts the total score to exceed 136.5 points, citing the combined 17 national championships held by the two programs and recent scoring trends. UCLA’s first-round game against UCF totaled 146 points, and UConn’s victory over Furman saw 153 points scored. The model also notes that the over has hit in four of UCLA’s last five games against non-Big Ten opponents.

UConn has a 6-4 record against current Big Ten members under coach Dan Hurley, and has won its last five contests against the conference, including a 3-0 record in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. The Huskies are appearing in their 39th NCAA Tournament and have reached the Big Dance six consecutive times, a program record. They have now achieved a 30-win season for the third time in four years.

Tarris Reed Jr. Led the Huskies against Furman with a standout performance. Both teams advanced after hard-fought first-round matchups on Friday night.

The winner of the UConn-Michigan State game will advance further in the East Regional bracket.