Trump Impeachment Bets Surge: Polymarket Predicts Early Exit
Wagers on the premature removal of Donald Trump from office are surging on the prediction market Polymarket, with millions of dollars being bet on the possibility, according to data analyzed Sunday.
The online platform allows users to trade on the outcome of future events, and the market predicting whether Trump will be removed from office before the end of his second term has seen a significant increase in activity. Although the probability of Trump’s removal before June 2026 remains low, at approximately four percent, the market’s assessment darkens considerably as the timeframe extends. Bidders currently assign a 12 percent probability to his departure by the end of 2026, following the midterm elections, and a 60 percent probability that he will leave the White House before January 20, 2029.
The rising speculation on Polymarket coincides with a period of escalating domestic and international pressure on the Trump administration. Recent events, including the commencement of a conflict involving Iran and the release of court documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein case, have intensified scrutiny and fueled calls for accountability.
The surge in betting activity on Polymarket has not gone unnoticed by Democrats. Senator Chris Murphy, via social media platform X, described the legality of such wagers as “insane,” alleging that individuals connected to Trump’s circle are profiting from potential conflict and loss of life. He has proposed legislation to prohibit prediction markets from offering bets on government actions deemed “manipulable.” A draft bill was introduced on March 17th to that effect.
Polymarket’s activity follows a pattern established during the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, when transaction volumes reached billions of dollars. The platform gained prominence for its ability to accurately gauge sentiment on political and economic events, offering an alternative to traditional polling and expert analysis. Donald Trump Jr., executive vice president of the Trump Organization, publicly stated in August 2025 that Polymarket “cuts through media spin and so-called ‘expert’ opinion by letting people bet on what they actually believe will happen in the world.”
In August 2025, Polymarket secured a double-digit million dollar investment from 1789 Capital, and Donald Trump Jr. Joined the platform’s advisory board. Shortly thereafter, in September 2025, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a letter of no action, allowing Polymarket to relaunch its services in the U.S. After a previous prohibition in 2022.
The platform’s resurgence comes as some observers suggest prediction markets could eventually surpass the stock market in size, according to billionaire Thomas Peterffy, founder of Interactive Brokers Group. However, concerns remain regarding the potential for insider trading and market manipulation. In a previous instance, a trader reportedly profited significantly by correctly predicting a U.S.-Israel action against Iran prior to its execution.
Demonstrations have erupted in several U.S. Cities following the escalation of tensions with Iran, with protesters demanding accountability from the Trump administration. A protest in Washington D.C. Featured a life-sized effigy of President Trump dressed in prison attire, accompanied by a banner calling for his impeachment.
Further complicating matters, recently released court documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein case contain allegations of sexual misconduct against President Trump. A woman alleges that Epstein introduced her to Trump in the 1980s, when she was a minor, and that Trump attempted to force her into sexual acts. The White House has dismissed the allegations as “baseless” and attributed them to a “disturbed individual.”