Trader Made $1M Betting on US & Israel Military Actions – Is It Insider Trading?
A trader amassed nearly $1 million since 2024 through a series of remarkably accurate bets on Polymarket, a prediction market, correctly anticipating unannounced U.S. And Israeli military actions against Iran, according to an analysis by Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics firm. The trader’s success rate on wagers concerning Iran reached 93% for bets exceeding $10,000.
The analysis, shared with CNN, reveals a pattern of prescient bets placed hours before significant events, including Israeli strikes in October 2024, U.S. Airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, and a joint U.S.-Israeli attack in February that initiated the current conflict. The trader netted approximately $967,000 from these wagers.
“All of this is strong signaling of insider activity, based on the amount they made, the markets they bet on, the timing of their trades, the success rates of these trades, and the fact that they are connected on-chain,” Bubblemaps CEO Nick Vaiman told CNN. “This is pretty suspicious in my book.”
The identity of the trader remains unknown, as the accounts used are anonymous and untraceable to a specific individual. The bets were placed on Polymarket’s international platform, which operates outside the regulatory reach of the United States. Polymarket did not respond to CNN’s requests for comment.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved Polymarket to offer trades to American customers last year, though its U.S.-facing site is not yet fully operational. Despite this, Americans can access the offshore platform using a virtual private network (VPN). The CFTC’s approval followed the Trump administration’s closure of a Biden-era criminal investigation into whether Polymarket was improperly allowing U.S. Users onto its offshore platforms.
Todd Phillips, a finance professor at Georgia State University and former CFTC advisory board member, expressed concern regarding the Iran trades. He noted that typical high-frequency traders achieve a win rate slightly above 50%, although the Bubblemaps analysis indicated an 83% overall win rate for the Iran trader, and a 93% rate for trades over $10,000. “It sure seems like this person either has incredible luck, or was insider trading,” Phillips said. “Having win rates in the 80% to 90% range is just too good to be true. I think something fishy is going on.”
While many of the profitable trades preceded U.S. Or Israeli military activity by hours, others were placed days or weeks in advance, a pattern Phillips indicated is less suggestive of insider activity. Some accounts linked to the trader continue to hold active positions on Polymarket, alongside smaller wagers on sporting events.
The ongoing conflict with Iran has intensified scrutiny of prediction markets like Polymarket, and Kalshi. Lawmakers and government watchdogs have voiced concerns about potential insider trading and the emergence of so-called “death markets,” following high-profile bets concerning the fate of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Kalshi, which prohibits insider trading, operates within the U.S. After receiving CFTC approval last year. The company announced fresh safeguards Monday to prevent insider trading, including enhanced screenings for athletes and politicians using the platform. CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and utilizes its data for event coverage, with editorial staff prohibited from participating in prediction markets.
Polymarket’s CEO, Shayne Coplan, previously expressed a positive view of potential insider activity, telling Axios in November that it was “super cool” that his platform “creates this financial incentive for people to move and divulge the information to the market,” including potential insiders.
A pattern of suspiciously timed trades on Polymarket has emerged around major geopolitical events. Similar activity preceded the reported U.S. Capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro in January, and occurred during earlier phases of the Iran conflict. Investigators in Israel recently indicted two individuals, including a military reservist, for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Polymarket during the war with Iran, according to local reports.
In response to these concerns, a bipartisan group of U.S. Lawmakers has proposed legislation to prohibit federal officials from using non-public information for betting on prediction platforms. The CFTC recently issued guidance reminding approved prediction market operators that “insider trading” is illegal and that the agency can pursue civil enforcement actions.
Jason Trost, CEO of Smarkets, a regulated prediction site based in the United Kingdom, noted the inherent risks of insider trading in financial markets. He also pointed out that valuable information can sometimes be publicly available but difficult to obtain, such as obscure satellite imagery. Trost stated that the increased flow of information into the marketplace is beneficial, but that utilizing materially non-public information constitutes a “red line.”