Toulon’s outgoing mayor, Josée Massi, warned Tuesday evening that a victory for National Rally candidate Laure Lavalette in the upcoming municipal elections would lead to division and fragmentation within the city. Massi, the primary rival to Lavalette, issued the caution as polling data indicates a tight race.
Recent surveys paint a complex picture of the election. A poll conducted by Elabe for Var Matin and BFM Toulon Var, published Monday, showed Lavalette leading with 41% of first-round votes, followed by Massi at 27% and Senator Michel Bonnus at 14%. However, the same poll indicated that Massi would win in a head-to-head runoff against Lavalette, securing 53% of the vote to Lavalette’s 47% if the right-wing vote consolidates behind her. Another poll, commissioned by Bonnus himself, presented a different scenario, suggesting Bonnus would lead.
The potential for a fragmented right-wing vote is a key factor in the election’s uncertainty. Hubert Falco, a former mayor of Toulon, was disqualified from running due to a conviction for misuse of public funds, contributing to the division. Massi’s warning appears to be a direct appeal for unity within the right-wing electorate.
According to the Elabe/Berger-Levrault poll for BFMTV, BFM Toulon Var and Var-Matin, Magali Brunel, representing the left-wing alliance excluding La France Insoumise (LFI), garnered 12% of the vote, although Isaline Cornil, the LFI candidate, received 6%. The possibility of Brunel reaching the second round complicates the potential outcomes.
In a scenario where Brunel qualifies for the second round, Lavalette is projected to win, even with a unified right-wing front. If Bonnus represents the right in a three-way runoff, he is predicted to receive 31% of the vote, compared to 38% for Massi. This suggests that the right’s ability to rally behind a single candidate is crucial to preventing a victory for Lavalette.
The election follows a pattern seen in the 2022 presidential election, where the far-right, including Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour, collectively secured nearly 40% of the vote in Toulon. The city’s political landscape remains highly sensitive to far-right appeals.
