Tonguç Erbaş Warns of 2027 Correction for Gold and Technology

Market analyst Tonguç Erbaş stated that 2027 carries a high probability of being a correction year for the stock market and technology sector, noting that market uncertainty depends on factors like oil prices and geopolitical risks.

Erbaş, who shared his outlook with Ekonomim, said that the current market environment lacks the necessary conditions for a sustained rally.

The gold market has faced a downward trend since January, failing to break its pattern despite recent U.S. election results and central bank policy shifts. After peaking at 4,650 dollars per ounce, the metal formed a narrowing triangle structure between 4,000 and 5,600 dollars, Ekonomim reported. Erbaş argued that the market has successfully purged the “foam” of excessive valuations, effectively resetting the price floor to the 4,000-dollar level.

Current price action remains sensitive to the correlation between energy costs and monetary policy. High oil prices historically signal elevated interest rates and a stronger dollar, both of which apply downward pressure on precious metals. Erbaş identified 3,870 dollars as a critical technical threshold for gold. If this level fails to hold, he warned that a 400-dollar valuation gap exists, potentially pulling prices into a 3,460 to 3,500-dollar range.

The domestic outlook for gram gold mirrors these international movements. Erbaş told Ekonomim that if the decline in the ounce price deepens, domestic gram gold may slip below the 6,000 TL mark. He advised investors to avoid rushing into new positions, suggesting that a period of observation is warranted until volatility subsides.

Technical Thresholds and Market Sentiment

Financial analyst İslam Memiş echoed concerns regarding the 3,880-dollar support level for gold, noting that the market has tested this threshold three times, according to Paratic Haber. Memiş cautioned investors against short-term “buy-sell” trading strategies in the current climate. As of November 13, the ounce price hovered near 3,885 dollars, with gram gold trading at 6,292 TL.

Standard Chartered has also adjusted its expectations due to ongoing policy uncertainty. The bank revised its three-month gold price forecast to 4.350 dollars and its 12-month target to 4,700 dollars, as reported by Uzmanpara. Despite these revisions, the institution maintains a long-term positive outlook, though it highlights that high interest rates—which may peak at 4,25-4,50% next year—diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

“The Fed is expected to hike rates in December and the first half of 2027.”

Standard Chartered noted in its assessment shared by Memiş and documented by Uzmanpara. In Turkey, Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan recently updated inflation projections, a move that Memiş noted weakens the prospect of single-digit inflation targets and complicates asset valuation for businesses and investors.

Technology Sector Constraints

The rally in technology, led by artificial intelligence and Nvidia, faces a cooling period as market participants grapple with cost pressures and slower growth. Erbaş observed that the Nasdaq 100 index has been trapped in a narrow 4,000-point trading band for approximately seven months.

While he characterizes the AI revolution as a permanent shift, he cautioned that global capital and demand may not be sufficient to support every firm within the sector.

“2027 is likely to be a year of correction for the stock market and the technology sector.”

Erbaş told Ekonomim. He emphasized that investors should avoid relying on past growth narratives, as current market conditions—defined by high interest rates and fiscal constraints—require a more disciplined approach to asset allocation.

Pathways to Recovery

Standard Chartered identified three specific conditions required for a new gold price rally: a weaker U.S. dollar, sustained reserve diversification by central banks in emerging markets, and a cooling of inflation driven by lower oil prices, according to Memiş and reporting from Memurlar.Net. Without these factors, the market remains in a state of high uncertainty.

The period between November 15 and December 15 is expected to provide clear directional signals for the coming quarters. Erbaş maintained that any potential upward movement in gold prices during 2027 is unlikely to exceed 5,000 dollars per ounce, urging investors to prioritize capital preservation over speculative returns.

Investors are currently tracking upcoming U.S. inflation data and changes in the dollar index to gauge the extent of future policy tightening. As of November 13, the dollar index was trading near 103, placing additional strain on precious metals and digital assets alike.