The Tennessee Election Was a Warning for Both Parties
The recent special election in Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District has sparked a debate within the democratic Party regarding the most effective path to victory, while simultaneously offering a cautionary tale for both sides of the aisle. The loss of Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn, despite a strong fundraising effort, has reignited the long-standing tension between strategies focused on mobilizing the base versus those prioritizing persuasion of swing voters.
Following Behn’s defeat,some progressive voices argued that a more moderate candidate wouldn’t have fared better,asserting that the core Democratic base wouldn’t have been motivated to vote. They contend that Behn’s performance wasn’t necessarily indicative of a broader weakness, but rather a result of the unusually high level of national attention the race received, including direct attacks from former President trump. However,critics point out that the effectiveness of those attacks was amplified by vulnerabilities within Behn’s own public persona.
This debate is often difficult to resolve definitively. As the author notes, in any given election, proponents of either approach can claim victory or justify defeat by arguing the candidate would have succeeded with a different strategy – either by more aggressively courting swing voters or by more effectively energizing the base.
However, the weight of evidence, according to the analysis, leans heavily towards the importance of persuasion. The author argues ther isn’t a genuine trade-off between appealing to new voters and energizing existing ones, as sporadic voters aren’t necessarily committed progressives waiting to be activated.In fact, these voters share ideological similarities with swing voters, often leaning more moderate and conservative. Consequently, the same tactics – focusing on economic concerns and presenting mainstream positions on cultural issues – tend to resonate with both groups.
The Tennessee special election, held in an off-year, represents a particularly favorable habitat for a turnout-focused strategy. however, the author warns that this advantage is likely to diminish in the upcoming midterm elections, and even more so in the 2028 presidential election. Eventually, Democrats will need to appeal to the broader electorate.
The dynamics within the Democratic primary for the Seventh District further illustrate this point. Only 31,000 voters participated in the four-way primary, a figure less than half the number who voted in the special election. Behn secured the nomination with 28% of the vote, narrowly defeating businessman Darden Copeland by fewer than 1,000 votes. Copeland campaigned on fiscal obligation,specifically lowering the national debt,and explicitly modeled his approach after Dick Gephardt,a former pro-life Democratic congressman and chair of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council.
Despite the party’s currently strong position heading into 2026, the author concludes that the Democrats risk self-sabotage by nominating candidates like Behn when viable alternatives, like Copeland, are available.
