Takaichi‘s “rocket Start” Fuels Calls for Snap Election, But LDP Veterans Warn of Repeat of Ishiba‘s 2024 Failure
TOKYO – A surge in approval ratings for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is prompting factions within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to advocate for a swift dissolution of the House of Representatives, believing a snap election could restore the party’s lost majority. However, seasoned election strategists within the LDP are cautioning against such a move, citing historical precedents and warning that a premature vote could mirror the disastrous outcome experienced by former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in October 2024.
The LDP lost its majority in the House of Representatives in an election held on October 27,2024. While Takaichi’s cabinet enjoys a current high approval rating, some within the party believe capitalizing on this momentum through an early election is the path to regaining control. This optimism is countered by experienced LDP figures who argue the current support isn’t genuine “support” but rather “expectation” – a hope for future change that could quickly evaporate without demonstrable results.
According to a veteran LDP election professional, the high approval rating is based on anticipation, not concrete backing.”Strictly speaking, the high approval rating of the Takaichi Cabinet is not ‘support,’ but ‘expectation.’ There is an expectation that something will be done in the future,or that politics will change.So, if results are not produced, the approval rating will plummet instantly.”
The strategist points to Ishiba’s experience as a cautionary tale. ishiba dissolved the House of Representatives shortly after assuming office last year, despite previously stating he would do so only after debate in the Budget Committee. He bypassed the committee process and called a general election, resulting in a “crushing defeat.” Ishiba himself later expressed regret, calling the decision “very painful.” ”If Prime Minister Takaichi decides to dissolve the House of Representatives early without producing any results, she will end up going in the same footsteps as Mr.ishiba,” the election professional warned.
Three key factors are identified as rendering a successful majority regain through early dissolution a “paper theory.”
