PSG’s Injury Troubles Present Handicap Betting Opportunities in Ligue 1
Recent performances suggest backing teams against Paris Saint-Germain with a goal handicap is proving a shrewd strategy in Ligue 1. Data indicates this approach has been accomplished in 5 of PSG’s 6 most recent league matches.
PSG, despite winning the last four Ligue 1 titles and being reigning European champions, have experienced a slower start to the domestic season. A delayed return to action following a Club World Cup appearance this summer, coupled with a meaningful injury list, appears to be impacting their dominance.
While currently holding a two-point lead over Marseille, PSG has only won four of their first 12 Ligue 1 games by more than a single goal. Their home victories against Lens and Auxerre (both 2-0) represent their most convincing results at the Parc des Princes. Statistically, PSG’s expected goals difference per 90 minutes (+0.74) ranks only 10th among clubs in the five major european championships.
A key factor contributing to this relative underperformance is the absence of several key players. Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé has been limited to just 282 minutes of Ligue 1 action, and will miss this weekend’s match against Le Havre. Désiré Doué, Nuno Mendes, and Achraf Hakimi are also currently sidelined, with returns not expected until at least December – potentially meaning they won’t feature in another Ligue 1 match this calendar year. PSG’s final domestic match before the winter break is scheduled for December 13th against Metz.
This injury situation is influencing betting opportunities. PSG has only won by more than two goals in two Ligue 1 matches this season, making them one of the least profitable teams in Europe in the handicap market. Since the start of October, backing Lille, Strasbourg, and Lorient with a one-goal advantage has proven profitable.
looking ahead, PSG faces Le Havre this weekend, a team that has conceded only one goal in their last four matches. Didier Digard’s side has lost only one of their last eight Ligue 1 games, suggesting they can challenge PSG. The article suggests considering a bet on Le Havre with a +2 goal handicap.
The following week, PSG travels to Monaco. while Ousmane dembélé has a chance of featuring in that match,it comes less than 72 hours after a Champions League clash with Tottenham. This congested schedule further increases the potential for a PSG stumble, making a bet on Monaco with a +1 goal handicap – representing an implied probability of 53.3% – an attractive option.
Odds provided by Unibet. Correct at time of publication and subject to change. (As per the original article)
