PSG Projected to Win Ligue 1, While Metz Faces Highest Relegation Risk: Opta Predictions
PARIS – Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) remains the overwhelming favorite to win the 2025-26 Ligue 1 title, according to updated projections from Opta’s artificial intelligence model. Despite a recent draw against Lorient, PSG boasts an 89.59% probability of finishing atop the league table. The analysis, released following the tenth day of competition, also identifies FC Metz as the team most likely to finish last, facing a 48.69% chance of relegation.
The early stages of the 2024-25 Ligue 1 season have been characterized by tight competition, with PSG holding only a two-point lead over sixth-place RC Lens. However, Opta’s model suggests a clearer picture will emerge as the season progresses, offering valuable insight for fans, bettors, and club management alike. These projections are based on recent results and statistical performances, but the model acknowledges that the league remains unpredictable at this stage.
Opta identifies Olympique de Marseille as PSG’s primary challenger, assigning them a 20.56% probability of winning the title. Following closely behind are Olympique Lyonnais (17.73%) and LOSC Lille (16.35%). Other teams with significant probabilities of securing a top position include RC Lens (14.43%), RC Strasbourg (13.97%), and OGC Nice (15.58%).
At the other end of the spectrum, FC Metz is heavily favored to be relegated, with nearly a 50% probability. angers SCO (12.26%) and AJ Auxerre (15.19%) also face considerable risk.
Opta’s Full Predictions for Final Ligue 1 2025-26 Ranking:
* Paris Saint-Germain = 89.59%
* Olympique de Marseille = 20.56%
* Olympique Lyonnais = 17.73%
* LOSC Lille = 16.35%
* RC Lens = 14.43%
* RC strasbourg = 13.97%
* AS monaco = 10.33%
* OGC Nice = 15.58%
* Toulouse FC = 15.63%
* Stade Rennais = 15.07%
* Stade Brestois = 13.10%
* Le Havre AC = 12.03%
* FC Nantes = 12.45%
* Paris FC = 13.04%
* FC Lorient = 13.40%
* AJ Auxerre = 15.19%
* Angers SCO = 12.26%
* FC Metz = 48.69%
