Summary of the Gas Security of Supply Assessment (2030s)
This document details an assessment of Great Britain’s (GB) gas supply security through the 2030s. Here’s a breakdown of the key findings:
Key Findings:
* Diverse Supply Sources: GB is expected to maintain a diverse range of gas supply sources including UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) production, Norwegian imports, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), pipeline imports from Europe, gas storage, and biomethane.
* Sufficient Supply Under Normal Conditions: Gas supply is projected to meet demand under typical seasonal weather conditions.
* Emerging Risks with Peak Demand: An emerging risk to gas supply security is identified when testing against extreme (1-in-20-year) peak demand scenarios, especially if decarbonisation efforts are slow, leading to continued high gas demand.
* Infrastructure Vulnerability: The loss of the single largest piece of gas infrastructure (the “N-1 test”) would result in supply falling short of demand in 2030/31, and in 2035/36 if decarbonisation is slow.
* Decarbonisation is Key: The speed of decarbonisation significantly impacts gas supply security.Slower decarbonisation means higher demand and greater risk.
Mitigation Strategies:
The assessment identifies a combination of measures to address these risks:
* Reduce Peak Demand: Through decarbonisation efforts.
* maximize Existing Supply: Optimizing output from current infrastructure.
* Develop New Supply Infrastructure: Investing in new sources and capacity.
Collaboration is Crucial:
Effective mitigation requires coordinated effort between NESO, government, Ofgem, and National Gas.
Statements from Key figures:
* dr. Deborah Petterson (NESO): Highlights the diverse supply, sufficient supply under normal conditions, and the identified risks related to slow decarbonisation and infrastructure failure. Emphasizes the importance of early risk identification and mitigation.
* Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen (National Gas): Welcomes the assessment and acknowledges the potential long-term challenges. Reinforces the critical role of gas in Britain’s energy security and the need for investment in both supply and network infrastructure.
In essence,the report paints a picture of a generally secure gas supply in the 2030s,but warns of potential vulnerabilities that require proactive mitigation,with decarbonisation being a central component of that strategy.
