One Big Reason To Buy Bitcoin Before the End of 2025
Despite a slower-than-expected third quarter, bullish sentiment for Bitcoin remains. Tom Lee of Fundstrat continues to predict a price of $200,000 by year-end, and online prediction markets, while cautious, still assign a 5% probability to Bitcoin reaching that milestone in 2025. This optimism is fueled by a compelling historical pattern: strong fourth-quarter performance.
Looking back, Bitcoin has consistently surged in the final three months of the year. In 2024, it rose by 48%, and in 2023, the increase was even more substantial at 57%. These gains were precursors to triple-digit returns and top-performing asset status in subsequent periods. The trend extends further back: a 168% jump in Q4 2020, a 215% surge in Q4 2017, and a remarkable 480% increase in Q4 2013.
while past performance doesn’t guarantee future results – a point the analysis rightly emphasizes, particularly given Bitcoin’s volatility – the historical data provides a strong foundation for confidence, especially as we approach the final months of 2025.
However, the most significant catalyst perhaps driving a late-2025 rally isn’t simply historical seasonality, but rather the growing interest and potential investment from sovereign nations. The United States set a precedent in March by announcing the creation of a Strategic bitcoin Reserve, effectively opening the door for other countries to follow suit. The idea is that sustained, large-scale purchases by governments could considerably boost Bitcoin’s price.
While U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated in August that further bitcoin purchases for the Strategic Reserve wouldn’t occur until 2026 at the earliest, this doesn’t preclude other nations from establishing their own reserves. As of September 2025, several countries have either officially announced plans or are actively considering Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
This unprecedented level of sovereign interest represents a potentially game-changing dynamic. While factors like Federal Reserve monetary policy – historically positive for crypto during rate cuts – remain uncertain (Bitcoin actually lost value in the week following the first Fed rate cut in September), the potential for a coordinated buying spree by governments could propel Bitcoin to new heights.
It’s important to acknowledge that Bitcoin hasn’t always performed well in the fourth quarter, with double-digit losses recorded in 2014, 2018, 2019, and 2022.However,the current environment,characterized by increasing global acceptance and strategic investment by nations,presents a unique possibility.If sovereign governments decide to aggressively accumulate Bitcoin before the end of the year, it could trigger a substantial price increase, making a late-2025 entry point particularly attractive.
