Tigers Face Uphill Battle to Retain Ace Tarik Skubal in Looming Free Agency
Teh Detroit Tigers face a complex situation as they navigate the upcoming free agency of starting pitcher Tarik Skubal. While a long-term extension isn’t entirely off the table, the odds are significantly stacked against it, according to industry sources. A recent assessment suggests the possibility of a pre-free agency extension has moved from 0% to just 10%, largely due to complications arising from the current collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).
The potential for a compressed free agency period, mirroring the late-November flurry of activity before the December 1, 2021 lockout, could offer detroit a slight advantage. A quicker process would allow the Tigers to leverage their existing relationship adn exclusive negotiating window with Skubal before a wider bidding war ensues.
Skubal’s potential contract will be benchmarked against recent deals for top pitchers.Yoshinobu Yamamoto recently secured a $325 million guarantee, the highest ever for a pitcher, while Max Fried received a $218 million guarantee, the largest for a left-handed pitcher. Notably, both of these contracts were negotiated by agencies other than Scott Boras Corporation, highlighting the importance of precedent-setting deals for prominent agencies seeking to attract high-value clients.
Though, Skubal’s medical history presents a consideration.He underwent Tommy john surgery in college and flexor tendon surgery in 2022, factors that will inevitably be weighed when projecting a long-term contract.
Despite these challenges, Tigers General Manager Scott Harris may have a path to retention, though a narrow one. While unlikely to win a straight bidding war for a record-breaking guarantee, offering a shorter deal with a high Average Annual Value (AAV) and opt-out clauses could be a viable strategy.
A significant hurdle for Detroit is its current payroll situation.The team finished last season with a $155 million competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll, remaining over $90 million below the first CBT tax threshold.An AAV for Skubal in the $30 million or even low $40 million range would represent a significant portion – potentially a quarter – of the Tigers’ payroll. This raises questions about whether Harris would be willing to allocate such a significant portion to a single player, or if signing Skubal would necessitate a broader increase in payroll to justify the investment as the team approaches its competitive peak.
The progress of prospects like Jackson McGonigle and Max Clark in 2026 could influence the equation. While their emergence wouldn’t instantly impact the payroll, it could enhance the team’s overall competitiveness and strengthen Detroit’s long-term case to Skubal.
The possibility of trading Skubal at the trade deadline has also been discussed, though one executive noted the unlikelihood of afterward re-signing him long-term.
Detroit’s early focus on adding pitching depth in free agency further complicates the picture. It remains unclear whether this strategy is intended to prepare for a potential Skubal trade, bolster the roster for a championship run, create depth for optionality throughout 2026, or simply address a general need for pitching. As ESPN’s Jeff Passan notes,interpreting the Tigers’ moves this winter is a complex exercise in reading ambiguous signals.
