Three Political Deals Emerge That Could Determine SA Politics, Says the Common Sense

Three broad political deals emerge in South Africa

Three broad political deals emerged over the weekend that could determine the future of South African politics, according to The Common Sense.

The practical execution of these arrangements faces considerable headwinds, with consequences that may include the collapse of the Government of National Unity, an early national election, or ActionSA leading a coalition between the African National Congress, the Economic Freedom Fighters, and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party.

To be workable, any coalition option must meet two strict conditions. The deal must secure a 50-percent-plus-one position in key Gauteng metros and ideally across four other hung metros. Partners must also agree on splitting mayoral and executive positions.

Parties consider a pact to secure majorities

The first option is a pact involving ActionSA, the ANC, the MKP, the EFF, the Patriotic Alliance, and regional parties. This arrangement extends the current governing alliance in Gauteng and is favored by regional and national ANC figures alongside ActionSA.

The Common Sense reported that this deal could secure majorities in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Mangaung, Buffalo City, Nelson Mandela Bay, and eThekwini. Discussions suggest ActionSA would take Tshwane while handing Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni to the ANC, with eThekwini going to the MKP.

This deal appeals to the ANC because it preserves control of major urban centers and patronage networks while excluding the Democratic Alliance. However, it directly contradicts the national unity government arrangement and could trigger its replacement.

DA and ANC partnership may spark internal rebellion

The second option is a pact between the DA and the ANC, which would secure majorities in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Mangaung, Buffalo City, and Nelson Mandela Bay.

Under proportional distribution, the DA would claim the bulk of mayorships and council control, leaving the ANC with Buffalo City and Mangaung. Some ANC members argue this outcome is entirely unacceptable and could spark internal party rebellion against Fikile Mbalula and Cyril Ramaphosa.

This internal resistance reflects a stark reality for the ANC. After losing many seats in the election, the ANC must accept a secondary role to the DA to form a national pact across metropolitan areas.

Bilateral pact between DA and ActionSA faces hurdles

The third option involves a bilateral pact between the DA and ActionSA. ActionSA insists on receiving the mayorship of Tshwane while demanding that Cilliers Brink and Helen Zille step down from prominent roles within the DA.

Politicsweb reported that very few parties would accept conditions dictating internal management, particularly given that the DA won more support in Tshwane than ActionSA. Even if implemented, the deal would only secure a majority in Tshwane, falling two seats short in Johannesburg and seven seats short in Ekurhuleni.

Party leaders are scheduled to negotiate these permutations over the coming week, introducing substantial risk into South Africa’s political outlook.